Articles on Stock markets

A subscriber can see that the stock moved higher in 38 of the 41 backtested cases, generating the Odds of Success at 90%. Remember, this was just the first news story listed, and there were a total of 10 stocks that matched the criteria of a bullish MACD signal. Within this customized news feed, a trader can explore all stocks in greater detail with one click.

The easiest way to start trading is Tickeron's Trader's Dashboard. Scroll down the free trade signal feed to review each tile separately. One tile is one signal. Signals are based on indicator alerts, price and volume actions, big market cap moves, insider trading information, patterns, trends, etc.  This feed only shows trade signals with good odds of success. Signals are calculated overnight for all asset classes and setups.

In trading, nobody relies on one signal. Users have to check all other available information as well. Tickeron aggregates such information in its daily buy/sell recommendations. You have three ways of accessing it. One is to upgrade to an intermediate membership.  The second is to buy any other product and get an intermediate subscription for free. The third way is to buy an annual subscription for $39/year and stay with a beginner membership. If you have any questions you can always call our customer support, view webcasts, and videos, or sign up for 1-on-1 lessons. 

We believe a smart approach is to deploy Artificial Intelligence to backtest across as many different indicators as possible. We have developed a proprietary formula called the “Odds of Trading Success,”in which the AI backtests and analyzes a broader range of past outcomes, perhaps offering greater insight into the likelihood of an outcome happening again.

In the hypothetical example below, the odds of success are determined by looking at four cases in which a stock behaved in a similar way. In three of four cases following the uptrend, the price continued to rise, meaning that the odds of success are 75%. Based on these odds, today’s prediction also features a likely uptrend in the future. 

Stocks are like fingerprints, in that they are each unique in how they react to different indicators. Why wouldn't you want to use the most successful indicators for each stock?

Another aspect of backtesting that should be taken into account is the stock sector. For instance, the Energy sector is influenced greatly by the global economy, geopolitics, and the supply and demand of oil.

Some technical indicators may be more accurate in predicting moves in the Energy sector than they are in the Consumer Staples sector, and vice versa. A bullish crossover in the Stochastic indicators may be extremely successful at predicting moves in the Energy sector, but not nearly as successful at predicting big moves from Consumer Staples stocks. At the end of the day, these nuances matter.

By backtesting individual indicators on individual stocks, you can build a portfolio of different strategies incorporated into one portfolio. Ideally, you would use the most successful signals from different indicators for each individual stock. Tickeron has all the technology to make this possible. We provide a technical analysis overview on almost all listed stocks, while also summarizing a number of different indicators. 

As an example, here is what Apple's technical analysis overview looked like on a random day in April 2020.

As you can see, there are five different technical indicators listed on this day with three pointing to a bullish move and two pointing toward a bearish move. Tickeron also tracks a handful of other indicators that aren't generating a signal at this time, otherwise, those would be listed as well (two notable indicators that aren't mentioned are Moving Average crossovers and the Relative Strength Index).

With backtesting, we can see that there are previous results noted for four of the five indicators—the Stochastic indicator doesn't show a result, but rather it notes that the stock has been in overbought territory for seven straight days.

Of the bullish signals, the MACD turning positive shows the highest percentage of success at 68%. The Aroon Indicator is close behind with a success rate of 66% and with far more previous results to look at— 143 instances versus 38 instances to consider for the MACD.

On the bearish side, the only indicators that have backtested results are the Bollinger Bands. The stock moved above the upper Bollinger Band, and it has done so on 56 previous instances. Only 16 of those 56 instances generated a successful result, meaning that the stock was lower one month later. That isn't a very high success rate, and traders would likely dismiss the signal.

This is because Tickeron has all of these indicators and pre-calculates them with backtests, which makes it easier for investors to build trading strategies. Because the results are laid out for each stock, it allows investors to build different strategies for different stocks, with relative ease.

Odds of success can be found in all Tickeron products. Our backtesting gives you the necessary information for all previous instances of similar situations. For example, if the odds that a Pennant bullish pattern tracked by our A.I. for the biotech company Novavax (NVAX) has been successful in 72% of the previous instances of the combination of this particular pattern and ticker, then the odds of success for the combination will be 72%. 

The Trend Prediction Engine can be used to consider an example of how the odds of success are implemented. If a trend (bullish/bearish / sideways) for a ticker has been located by our A.I., the A.I. will backtest all previous instances of this ticker and trend combination and will show the number of times the combination proved successful, as a percentage of the total number of times this trend has been predicted for this ticker. The percentage of successful instances in the past can be viewed in respect to a combination of: 1) one ticker and one pattern, 2) one ticker and all patterns, and 3) all tickers and one pattern. 

This is just a small fraction of the way the odds of success are used on the Tickeron website. Upon exploring different products, indicators, ratings, and statistics, you will discover just how important it is to understand the way the odds of success work in order to get the most out of our proprietary tools.