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MCO vs SF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Moody's Corporation (MCO) vs. Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MCO, a leader in credit ratings, has shown steady gains in recent weeks amid expectations for robust bond issuance, with shares up around 4% over the past 30 days.
- SF has delivered stronger recent momentum, rising over 16% in the past month, driven by record annual results and a dividend increase.
- Both stocks operate in financial services but differ in scale: MCO's market cap exceeds $80 billion, dwarfing SF's roughly $12 billion.
- SF benefits from investment banking tailwinds, while MCO leverages its near-monopoly in ratings for resilient revenue.
- Recent earnings beats for both highlight operational strength, but SF edges out on relative performance in volatile markets.
- Tickeron's AI tools point to SF for short-term traders seeking momentum.
Introduction
This stock comparison pits MCO, a global powerhouse in credit ratings and analytics, against SF, a dynamic player in wealth management and investment banking. Investors eyeing financial sector opportunities—particularly those balancing stability with growth potential—will find value here. Amid shifting market sentiment and economic signals, understanding their relative performance, business models, and momentum helps inform positioning in a competitive landscape.
MCO Overview and Recent Performance
Moody's Corporation (MCO) provides essential credit ratings, research, and risk analysis services, holding a dominant position in the oligopolistic ratings industry. In recent market activity, shares have climbed steadily, gaining approximately 4% over the past 30 days to around $455, buoyed by anticipation of Q1 earnings and sustained global bond issuance. Q4 2025 results exceeded expectations, with adjusted EPS of $3.64 (beating consensus by 5%) and revenue up 13% year-over-year, driven by analytics demand. Sentiment remains positive on structural tailwinds like debt refinancing, though shares have moderated from 52-week highs near $547 amid broader market rotations.
SF Overview and Recent Performance
Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) operates a full-service platform spanning brokerage, investment banking, and wealth management, targeting institutional and high-net-worth clients. Recent weeks have seen robust price action, with shares surging over 16% in the past month to about $82, reflecting record full-year results announced in late January 2026. Q4 EPS hit $2.63, topping estimates, alongside an 11% dividend hike and a three-for-two stock split. Capital markets strength and advisory fees have fueled gains, though sensitivity to trading volumes introduces volatility compared to peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MCO and SF both thrive in financial services but diverge sharply in models: MCO's ratings business generates sticky, high-margin revenue (P/E around 37) from a near-duopoly, insulating it from cycles, while SF's brokerage and IB operations (forward P/E lower at ~10) amplify growth via M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and market upswings but heighten cyclical risks. Growth drivers contrast too—MCO via analytics expansion, SF through fee-based wealth inflows. Recent momentum favors SF, but MCO offers superior stability and sector exposure to fixed income. Risks include regulatory scrutiny for MCO and equity volatility for SF; sentiment tilts toward SF in risk-on environments.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward SF with higher conviction for momentum plays, given its superior relative performance (16% monthly gain vs. MCO's 4%) and catalysts like capital markets recovery. That said, MCO appeals for trend consistency and lower volatility, potentially gaining if bond volumes accelerate. Probabilistic edge favors SF in the near term based on observable trends.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MCO is a Buy and SF is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MCO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MCO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MCO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SF’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MCO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MCO (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а -1.48% price change this week, while SF (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +0.86% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was -4.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.94%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -1.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.29%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.29%.
Reported Earning Dates
MCO is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
SF is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (-4.86% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-1.71% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
| MCO | SF | MCO / SF | |
| Capitalization | 78.1B | 11.3B | 691% |
| EBITDA | 3.96B | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -12.036 | -10.880 | 111% |
| P/E Ratio | 32.09 | 14.38 | 223% |
| Revenue | 7.87B | 5.69B | 138% |
| Total Cash | 1.51B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 7.31B | 1.52B | 480% |
MCO | SF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 55 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 15 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 74 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SF's Valuation (62) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MCO (86) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that SF’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
SF's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MCO (56) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that SF’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's SMR Rating (15) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as SF (21) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to SF’s over the last 12 months.
SF's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MCO (55) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that SF’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's P/E Growth Rating (73) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as SF (74) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to SF’s over the last 12 months.
| MCO | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 59% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 16 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 66% |
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MCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCO has been closely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MCO jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCO | 100% | -0.74% | ||
| SPGI - MCO | 88% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| JEF - MCO | 66% Closely correlated | +1.14% | ||
| MSCI - MCO | 66% Closely correlated | -0.06% | ||
| SF - MCO | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.37% | ||
| GS - MCO | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.89% | ||
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