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MCO vs TRU
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Moody's Corporation (MCO) vs. TransUnion (TRU) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MCO pairs a dominant credit-ratings franchise with fast-growing subscription analytics, supported by a surge in AI-related debt issuance.
- TRU is delivering double-digit revenue growth, but its shares sit near a 52-week low amid a leadership transition and regulatory uncertainty.
- MCO carries premium profitability, with adjusted operating margins above 50%, versus TRU's more modest adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins in the mid-30% range.
- Analyst positioning leans clearly bullish on MCO, while sentiment on TRU has cooled on mortgage and credit-model policy risks.
- Both companies benefit from rising data and AI demand, but their risk profiles and recent relative performance differ sharply.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two well-known names in financial data and risk assessment: Moody's Corporation (MCO), a leader in credit ratings and analytics, and TransUnion (TRU), one of the three major global consumer credit bureaus. Both businesses monetize proprietary data and analytics, yet they serve different corners of the financial ecosystem and have followed divergent market paths in recent months. Investors weighing quality and stability against valuation and turnaround potential may find this relative performance review useful, as may those tracking how AI adoption is reshaping demand for data and decisioning tools across financial services.
MCO Overview and Recent Performance
Moody's Corporation operates two complementary segments: Moody's Investors Service (MIS), which issues credit ratings on corporate, structured, and public debt, and Moody's Analytics (MA), which sells research, data, and risk-decisioning software. The company reported full-year 2025 revenue of approximately $7.7 billion, up 9%, with adjusted operating margin above 50%. Record ratings revenue has been fueled by strong investment-grade issuance, including sizable AI-related financings from hyperscale and data-center borrowers, while Analytics has grown its annualized recurring revenue (ARR), a measure of contracted subscription income, to roughly $3.6 billion.
In recent market activity, MCO shares have pulled back from their 52-week high, reflecting valuation pressure and broader market caution rather than operational weakness. Consensus analyst sentiment remains constructive, with a "Buy" rating and an average price target well above the recent share price. Longer-term shareholders have still benefited from multi-year gains, underscoring the durability of Moody's ratings-and-analytics model.
TRU Overview and Recent Performance
TransUnion is a global consumer credit reporting and information solutions provider, competing with Equifax and Experian across credit, fraud, marketing, and consumer data. It has invested heavily in its OneTru platform, which unifies data, analytics, and decisioning, and has pursued international expansion, including the acquisition of Trans Union de Mexico. Second-quarter 2026 revenue rose roughly 15% year over year to about $1.31 billion, with organic growth led by U.S. Financial Services and international markets.
Despite solid fundamentals, TRU shares have declined markedly in recent weeks and sit near a 52-week low, weighed down by a surprise CFO (Chief Financial Officer) transition, a higher-than-peer debt load of roughly $5.6 billion, and regulatory uncertainty around potential changes to credit scoring models, including the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) "bi-merge" debate. Several analysts have lowered price targets, and the stock has lagged the broader market on a year-to-date basis.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies occupy adjacent but distinct business models. MCO is anchored by a ratings duopoly with software-like economics, generating exceptionally high margins and benefiting directly when debt issuance rises. TRU depends more heavily on consumer credit activity, mortgage volumes, and lender demand for data, making it more sensitive to interest rates and regulatory policy.
Growth drivers also differ. Moody's tailwinds include AI-driven capital spending and private-credit expansion, which lift both issuance and analytics subscriptions. TransUnion's drivers include cross-selling its OneTru platform, international expansion, and AI-powered fraud and marketing tools, though mortgage headwinds and FICO royalty costs have compressed margins.
Risk profiles diverge meaningfully. MCO carries premium valuation but lower operational uncertainty. TRU trades at a discounted valuation but faces leadership transition risk, elevated leverage, and credit-model policy uncertainty. In terms of market positioning, MCO has demonstrated steadier recent momentum and stronger analyst conviction, while TRU presents a more contrarian, higher-uncertainty setup.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MCO in the current environment. The stock exhibits more consistent trend characteristics, higher and more stable profitability, durable catalysts tied to AI-related issuance and recurring analytics revenue, and broader analyst support. TRU, by contrast, carries a leadership transition, regulatory overhang, and heavier leverage that introduce greater near-term uncertainty. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive forecast; conditions can shift as regulatory outcomes clarify and as either company's momentum evolves.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MCO is a StrongBuy and TRU is a Hold.
MCO in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MCO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MCO's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MCO as a result. In 58 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MCO just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where MCO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
MCO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCO advanced for three days, in 215 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
MCO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MCO entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MCO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MCO's P/B Ratio (27.735) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.065). P/E Ratio (30.642) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.455). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.609) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.132) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
TRU in +6.69% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 22, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where TRU advanced for three days, in 200 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TRU as a result. In 51 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TRU just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where TRU's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
TRU moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TRU crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TRU moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TRU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
TRU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TRU entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TRU’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.150) is normal, around the industry mean (4.065). P/E Ratio (20.789) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.455). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.921) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. TRU's P/S Ratio (2.976) is slightly lower than the industry average of (7.166).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TRU’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock worse than average.
MCO | TRU | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 67 | 86 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 1 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TRU's Valuation (68) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as MCO (98) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that TRU’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's Profit vs Risk Rating (50) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TRU (100) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew somewhat faster than TRU’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's SMR Rating (16) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TRU (54) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew somewhat faster than TRU’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as TRU (42) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to TRU’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's P/E Growth Rating (67) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as TRU (86) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to TRU’s over the last 12 months.
| MCO | TRU | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 61% | 6 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 53% | 1 day ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MCO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TRU’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MCO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TRU’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MCO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TRU’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MCO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TRU’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MCO (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +0.66% price change this week, while TRU (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +8.89% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +4.54%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.36%.
Reported Earning Dates
MCO is expected to report earnings on Feb 05, 2027.
TRU is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+4.54% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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MCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCO has been closely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MCO jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCO | 100% | +0.21% | ||
| SPGI - MCO | 88% Closely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| MSCI - MCO | 68% Closely correlated | +0.33% | ||
| JEF - MCO | 66% Closely correlated | +1.43% | ||
| SF - MCO | 66% Loosely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| GS - MCO | 66% Loosely correlated | +2.01% | ||
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TRU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TRU has been loosely correlated with EFX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TRU jumps, then EFX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TRU | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRU | 100% | -2.28% | ||
| EFX - TRU | 65% Loosely correlated | -2.08% | ||
| SPGI - TRU | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| MCO - TRU | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| NDAQ - TRU | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.11% | ||
| EXPO - TRU | 51% Loosely correlated | +0.30% | ||
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