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AJG vs MRSH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) vs. Marsh McLennan (MRSH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AJG and MRSH both operate in insurance brokerage, but MRSH is a more diversified professional-services firm spanning risk, consulting, and human capital.
- Recent earnings have been resilient for both companies, with each beating consensus estimates on revenue and adjusted EPS (earnings per share) in their latest reported quarters.
- AJG has leaned heavily on acquisitions to drive growth, while MRSH blends acquisition-led expansion with steadier, more diversified revenue streams.
- Both stocks have pulled back from 52-week highs, reflecting a softer property and casualty (P&C) pricing cycle and elevated valuations across the broker sector.
- MRSH offers a higher dividend yield and a lower trailing valuation multiple, while AJG carries a higher trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio but a stronger near-term acquisition pipeline.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the insurance-services sector frequently weigh two of its largest names: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) and Marsh McLennan (MRSH). Both companies are leaders in brokerage and risk advisory, yet they differ meaningfully in business mix, growth strategy, and market positioning. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and long-term investors seeking to understand relative performance, momentum, and risk factors within a defensive, fee-based industry. By examining recent performance, catalysts, and valuation, readers can better assess which of these two franchises aligns with their own investment framework under current market conditions.
AJG Overview and Recent Performance
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is a global insurance brokerage, risk management, and consulting firm that generates revenue primarily from commissions and fees. The company has long used an acquisition-driven strategy to expand its client base and geographic footprint. In recent quarters, AJG has integrated several large purchases, including AssuredPartners and Woodruff Sawyer, alongside smaller regional transactions.
In its most recent reported quarter, AJG delivered revenue and adjusted earnings that surpassed consensus estimates, supported by both organic growth and newly acquired businesses. Recent market activity, however, has been mixed: the stock has declined from earlier highs as investors recalibrated expectations around a softening P&C pricing cycle and near-term integration costs. Several sell-side firms have trimmed price targets in recent weeks, even while maintaining broadly positive ratings. Analysts continue to highlight the company's defensive brokerage model and potential efficiency gains, but the stock's elevated trailing P/E ratio remains a point of debate.
MRSH Overview and Recent Performance
Marsh McLennan is a global professional-services firm operating across two primary segments: Risk and Insurance Services (including the Marsh brokerage and Guy Carpenter reinsurance brands) and Consulting (including Mercer and Oliver Wyman). This broader mix differentiates MRSH from more brokerage-focused peers.
In its most recent reported quarter, MRSH posted mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth and a comparable increase in adjusted EPS, beating consensus forecasts. GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) operating income was pressured by a large litigation charge, though adjusted results remained strong. The company has continued its own acquisition activity, including the sizeable McGriff acquisition and the completion of Accel Holdings, while launching new offerings such as Archer by Marsh. Like its peer, MRSH has traded below its 52-week high amid softer insurance pricing and mixed analyst sentiment, though recent weeks have shown firmer momentum ahead of its next earnings release.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks lies in business diversification. MRSH spans insurance brokerage, reinsurance, benefits consulting, and management consulting, which can cushion results when any single segment softens. AJG is more concentrated in brokerage and risk management, giving it greater leverage to the insurance cycle and to M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity.
On growth, AJG has pursued a more aggressive acquisition strategy in recent periods, boosting reported revenue growth but also adding integration risk and debt. MRSH has also been acquisitive but balances this with steadier organic growth and a cost-efficiency program. On valuation, MRSH trades at a lower trailing P/E ratio and offers a higher dividend yield, while AJG commands a premium multiple tied to its faster headline growth. Both carry modest betas (a measure of market sensitivity) below the broader market, reflecting their defensive, fee-based earnings. Shared risk factors include the softening P&C pricing cycle, interest-rate sensitivity, and valuation compression across the broker sector.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, diversification, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MRSH in the current environment. Its more diversified revenue base, lower trailing valuation multiple, higher dividend yield, and steadier earnings profile tend to support a more consistent trend signal. AJG offers potentially stronger acquisition-driven growth, but that comes with greater integration complexity and a richer valuation that can amplify downside in a risk-off tape. This assessment reflects a probabilistic, model-based read of relative positioning rather than a definitive prediction, and conditions could shift as new earnings and pricing data emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AJG is a Hold and MRSH is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for AJG turns positive, indicating new upward trend
AJG saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 85 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 53 of the 85 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AJG just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where AJG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
AJG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AJG advanced for three days, in 208 of 369 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for AJG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AJG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
AJG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AJG entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AJG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.480) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (38.053) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.679) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.021) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
MRSH's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MRSH turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where MRSH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MRSH as a result. In 43 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
MRSH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MRSH advanced for three days, in 160 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for MRSH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MRSH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
MRSH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MRSH entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MRSH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MRSH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.313) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (20.639) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.486) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.089) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
AJG | MRSH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 70 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MRSH's Valuation (82) in the null industry is in the same range as AJG (91) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as MRSH (70) in the null industry. This means that AJG’s stock grew similarly to MRSH’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's SMR Rating (37) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AJG (80) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew somewhat faster than AJG’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's Price Growth Rating (47) in the null industry is in the same range as AJG (50) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the null industry is in the same range as AJG (60) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
| AJG | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 37% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 48% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 49% | 26 days ago 43% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 40% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 43% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AJG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while MRSH’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AJG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MRSH’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AJG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRSH’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AJG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MRSH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AJG (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +9.53% price change this week, while MRSH (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +7.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was +0.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.70%.
Reported Earning Dates
AJG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
MRSH is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (+0.18% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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AJG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AJG has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AJG jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AJG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJG | 100% | +1.91% | ||
| BRO - AJG | 83% Closely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| MRSH - AJG | 79% Closely correlated | +0.97% | ||
| AON - AJG | 73% Closely correlated | +2.00% | ||
| WTW - AJG | 72% Closely correlated | +1.65% | ||
| ERIE - AJG | 59% Loosely correlated | +2.10% | ||
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MRSH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRSH has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MRSH jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MRSH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 100% | +0.97% | ||
| BRO - MRSH | 81% Closely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| AJG - MRSH | 80% Closely correlated | +1.91% | ||
| AON - MRSH | 78% Closely correlated | +2.00% | ||
| WTW - MRSH | 65% Loosely correlated | +1.65% | ||
| RYAN - MRSH | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.77% | ||
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