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AJG vs MRSH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) vs. Marsh & McLennan (MRSH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AJG and MRSH are both leaders in insurance brokerage, but AJG leans heavily on brokerage and risk management, while MRSH spans risk, reinsurance, consulting, and investments.
- Recent momentum has diverged: MRSH has trended higher on strong earnings and an expanded efficiency program, while AJG has lagged amid margin compression and softer property pricing.
- AJG is expanding aggressively through acquisitions (M&A), while MRSH is reinvesting cost savings into technology, AI, and organic growth.
- Valuation multiples differ meaningfully, with AJG trading at a premium price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio relative to MRSH.
- Both face the same industry headwind: softening property and reinsurance pricing.
- Tickeron's AI tools can help investors track trend consistency and relative positioning across both tickers.
Introduction
Insurance brokers rarely make headlines the way technology or energy stocks do, yet they represent some of the most resilient business models in financial services. This stock comparison looks at two industry heavyweights: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) and Marsh & McLennan (MRSH). Both generate recurring, fee-based revenue and benefit from long-term demand for risk management, but their growth strategies and recent relative performance have diverged. Traders and investors evaluating defensive, cash-generative financial services companies may find this comparison useful for understanding where each firm stands in the current market environment and how AI-driven analysis might assess their market positioning.
AJG Overview and Recent Performance
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is a global insurance brokerage, risk management, and consulting firm. Its brokerage segment places property, casualty, and other coverage, while its Gallagher Bassett division provides claims management, workers' compensation solutions, and loss-control services. In recent quarters, the risk management business has become a standout, reporting roughly 12% organic growth—well above the brokerage unit's growth—as clients seek broader risk solutions beyond insurance placement.
Recent stock behavior for AJG has been softer than the broader market. Shares have declined on a one-year basis and have underperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date, pressured by moderating property insurance pricing and thinner operating margins following its integration of acquisitions such as AssuredPartners. Management has signaled up to roughly $10 billion in M&A (mergers and acquisitions) capacity over the next two years, which analysts view as a potential long-term growth driver. Still, the stock trades at a premium earnings multiple, leaving limited room for disappointment if the growth narrative stumbles.
MRSH Overview and Recent Performance
Marsh & McLennan—rebranded as "Marsh" in early 2026—is a global professional services firm operating through four primary businesses: Marsh (risk and insurance), Guy Carpenter (reinsurance, now reported as "Reinsurance"), Mercer (health, retirement, and investments, now "People and Investments"), and Oliver Wyman (management consulting). This diversification across risk, strategy, and human capital gives MRSH a broader revenue base than a pure broker.
Recent market activity for MRSH has been comparatively constructive. The company's latest quarterly results topped consensus, with revenue rising about 8% and underlying (organic) growth of 5%, led by double-digit growth in management consulting. Shares advanced on the report and have traded near the upper end of their recent range. Management also raised its "Thrive" efficiency program savings target from roughly $400 million to $600 million, with the added savings earmarked for reinvestment in technology, AI, and sales capacity. Reinsurance pricing remains a soft spot, but diversified revenue has offset that pressure.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies share a core insurance brokerage foundation but differ sharply in scope and strategy. AJG is more concentrated in brokerage and risk management, and its growth engine leans on acquisitions—management has outlined substantial M&A capacity—plus expanding claims services. In contrast, MRSH operates a broader platform spanning reinsurance, consulting, and investments, and is currently focused on organic growth, margin expansion, and reinvesting efficiency savings into technology and AI-enabled products.
On recent momentum, MRSH has held up better, supported by earnings beats and an upgraded cost-savings program, while AJG has faced margin pressure and a pullback in its share price. Both names are exposed to the same macro risk: softening property and reinsurance pricing, which can compress brokerage commissions. AJG's heavier reliance on brokerage and M&A execution contrasts with MRSH's diversified revenue, which provides some cushion against pricing cycles but also introduces consulting-market sensitivity. From a valuation standpoint, AJG trades at a notably higher earnings multiple, suggesting the market is pricing in more demanding growth expectations relative to MRSH.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, earnings momentum, margin trajectory, and diversification—Tickeron's AI would likely favor MRSH in the current environment. The company's recent earnings outperformance, expanded efficiency savings, and diversified revenue base support steadier relative positioning, while AJG's softer margins and higher valuation multiple introduce more uncertainty near term. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive outcome: if insurance pricing stabilizes and AJG's acquisition integration accelerates, the relative picture could shift. Investors should weigh each stock's catalysts and risk profile rather than treat AI signals as a substitute for independent analysis.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AJG is a Hold and MRSH is a StrongBuy.
AJG's RSI Indicator peaks and leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for AJG moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 24 of the 39 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AJG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
AJG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AJG entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AJG as a result. In 55 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AJG just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where AJG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
AJG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AJG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +7.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AJG advanced for three days, in 208 of 369 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AJG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.799) is normal, around the industry mean (2.634). P/E Ratio (42.461) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.052). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.679) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.046) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.021) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
MRSH in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MRSH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MRSH as a result. In 43 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MRSH just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where MRSH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
MRSH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MRSH advanced for three days, in 160 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 100 of 272 cases where MRSH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 37%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MRSH moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 12 of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 36%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 14 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MRSH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
MRSH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MRSH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MRSH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.993) is normal, around the industry mean (2.634). P/E Ratio (23.224) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.052). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.486) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.046) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.089) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
AJG | MRSH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 68 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MRSH's Valuation (90) in the null industry is in the same range as AJG (97) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as MRSH (68) in the null industry. This means that AJG’s stock grew similarly to MRSH’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's SMR Rating (37) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AJG (80) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew somewhat faster than AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as MRSH (42) in the null industry. This means that AJG’s stock grew similarly to MRSH’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the null industry is in the same range as AJG (35) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
| AJG | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 36% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 56% | 9 days ago 47% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 37% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AJG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while MRSH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AJG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MRSH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AJG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRSH’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AJG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MRSH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AJG (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а -0.10% price change this week, while MRSH (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was -0.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was -1.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.89%.
Reported Earning Dates
AJG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
MRSH is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (-1.07% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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AJG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AJG has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AJG jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AJG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJG | 100% | -2.92% | ||
| BRO - AJG | 83% Closely correlated | -4.97% | ||
| MRSH - AJG | 80% Closely correlated | -2.08% | ||
| AON - AJG | 73% Closely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| WTW - AJG | 72% Closely correlated | -1.54% | ||
| ERIE - AJG | 61% Loosely correlated | -1.76% | ||
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MRSH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRSH has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MRSH jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MRSH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 100% | -2.08% | ||
| BRO - MRSH | 81% Closely correlated | -4.97% | ||
| AJG - MRSH | 80% Closely correlated | -2.92% | ||
| AON - MRSH | 80% Closely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| WTW - MRSH | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.54% | ||
| RYAN - MRSH | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.70% | ||
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