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AON vs MRSH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Aon plc (AON) vs. Marsh & McLennan (MRSH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AON and MRSH are two of the world's largest insurance brokerage and risk-advisory firms, yet they carry distinct business mixes and risk profiles.
- Both names have come under pressure recently, but AON has fallen more sharply, trading near its 52-week low amid leverage concerns tied to its $17 billion USI acquisition.
- AON delivered stronger recent momentum in its core Risk Capital segment, while MRSH offers greater diversification through its consulting and reinsurance units.
- MRSH currently holds a more defensive posture with higher return on equity, a richer dividend yield, and milder relative drawdowns.
- Analyst sentiment is split: consensus leans "Buy" on AON versus a more cautious "Hold" on MRSH.
- Tickeron's AI tends to weigh trend stability and relative positioning alongside fundamentals, shaping a nuanced verdict between the two.
Introduction
For investors evaluating the insurance brokerage and professional services sector, AON and MRSH represent two of the most prominent publicly traded franchises. Both generate fee-based, recurring revenue from advising clients on risk, benefits, and human capital, making them appealing to investors seeking relative stability. However, the two stocks have diverged meaningfully in recent weeks, driven by contrasting acquisition strategies, growth profiles, and market sentiment. This stock comparison examines their business models, recent relative performance, and market positioning to help traders and investors assess how these peers stack up in the current environment.
AON Overview and Recent Performance
AON (Aon plc) is a leading global professional services firm focused on risk management, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, and human capital consulting. Its business is organized around Risk Capital (Commercial Risk and Reinsurance Solutions) and Human Capital (Health and Wealth Solutions). In its most recent quarterly results, Aon reported total revenue of roughly $5.0 billion, up 6% year over year, with organic revenue growth of 5% and adjusted operating margin of about 39.1%, an improvement of 70 basis points.
Despite solid fundamentals, Aon's stock has been a notable laggard in recent weeks, with its share price down roughly 10% over the past month and around 22% to 23% over the past 90 days, placing it near the lower end of its 52-week range. The primary drag has been investor concern over balance-sheet leverage following the announced $17 billion acquisition of USI, a middle-market insurance brokerage. While analysts broadly maintain a "Buy" consensus and highlight strong retention and margin expansion, the integration risk and elevated debt have weighed on sentiment, keeping technical momentum negative.
MRSH Overview and Recent Performance
MRSH (Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.) is a diversified professional services leader spanning risk and insurance brokerage (Marsh), reinsurance (Guy Carpenter), and consulting (Mercer and Oliver Wyman). This broader mix provides multiple revenue streams across insurance, health, retirement, and strategy advisory. In its most recent reporting, Marsh & McLennan posted roughly 8% overall revenue growth (about 4% underlying) with adjusted earnings per share up about 8% year over year, though GAAP operating income declined as acquisition and integration costs weighed on reported results.
Relative to its peer, Marsh & McLennan has shown greater resilience in recent market activity, with a milder year-to-date decline and a firmer short-term rebound. The company continues to return capital aggressively, having raised its quarterly dividend by 10% while repurchasing shares. Its trailing return on equity of roughly 32% and dividend yield near 2% reflect strong earnings power. However, softer property and reinsurance pricing, together with a mixed analyst outlook, have kept the stock range-bound and tempered upside conviction.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both firms operate in the same sector, their market positioning differs in meaningful ways. AON is more concentrated in risk and insurance brokerage and is currently pursuing a large, leverage-intensive expansion into the middle market through its USI deal, which offers growth potential but adds integration and balance-sheet risk. MRSH, by contrast, leans on a more diversified consulting-and-brokerage model that has historically smoothed earnings across cycles, and its capital returns (dividend plus buybacks) are comparatively richer.
On recent momentum, Aon has shown stronger organic growth in its Risk Capital business and more aggressive margin expansion, yet its share price has underperformed as investors digest the acquisition. Marsh & McLennan's underlying growth has been more moderate, and soft pricing in property and reinsurance lines presents a headwind, but its relative price stability and higher return on equity suggest a more defensive profile. Risk factors diverge accordingly: Aon's primary concern is leverage and integration execution, while Marsh & McLennan's is pricing pressure and consulting demand sensitivity. Sector exposure is similar, but their growth drivers and risk-reward trade-offs differ enough to appeal to different investor preferences.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MRSH in the current environment. Marsh & McLennan's milder drawdown, stronger return on equity, higher dividend yield, and more diversified revenue base suggest more favorable relative stability and trend consistency than Aon's sharper decline and elevated leverage overhang. That said, AON retains a stronger near-term growth catalyst and wider consensus upside, so a rotation in sentiment or successful integration could shift the relative picture. This assessment reflects probabilities and positioning rather than a definitive outcome, and it should be considered alongside a trader's own objectives and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AON is a Hold and MRSH is a StrongBuy.
AON's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AON turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where AON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AON as a result. In 59 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +6.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AON advanced for three days, in 147 of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AON moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 60%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for AON moved below the 200-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
AON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AON entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AON’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.686) is normal, around the industry mean (2.634). P/E Ratio (16.603) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.052). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.134) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.046) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.687) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
MRSH in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MRSH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MRSH as a result. In 43 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MRSH just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where MRSH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
MRSH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MRSH advanced for three days, in 160 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 100 of 272 cases where MRSH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 37%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MRSH moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 12 of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 36%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 14 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MRSH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
MRSH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MRSH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MRSH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.993) is normal, around the industry mean (2.634). P/E Ratio (23.224) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.052). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.486) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.046) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.089) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
AON | MRSH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 68 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 23 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 84 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AON's Valuation (89) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as MRSH (90) in the null industry. This means that AON’s stock grew similarly to MRSH’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's Profit vs Risk Rating (68) in the null industry is in the same range as AON (87) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to AON’s over the last 12 months.
AON's SMR Rating (23) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as MRSH (37) in the null industry. This means that AON’s stock grew similarly to MRSH’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's Price Growth Rating (42) in the null industry is in the same range as AON (58) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew similarly to AON’s over the last 12 months.
MRSH's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AON (84) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that MRSH’s stock grew somewhat faster than AON’s over the last 12 months.
| AON | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 36% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 46% | 9 days ago 47% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 1 day ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 37% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AON’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MRSH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MRSH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AON’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRSH’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AON’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MRSH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AON (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +1.95% price change this week, while MRSH (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was -0.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was -1.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.89%.
Reported Earning Dates
AON is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
MRSH is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (-1.07% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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AON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AON has been closely correlated with MRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AON jumps, then MRSH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AON | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AON | 100% | +0.15% | ||
| MRSH - AON | 80% Closely correlated | -2.08% | ||
| AJG - AON | 76% Closely correlated | -2.92% | ||
| BRO - AON | 73% Closely correlated | -4.97% | ||
| WTW - AON | 69% Closely correlated | -1.54% | ||
| RYAN - AON | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.70% | ||
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MRSH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRSH has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MRSH jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MRSH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 100% | -2.08% | ||
| BRO - MRSH | 81% Closely correlated | -4.97% | ||
| AJG - MRSH | 80% Closely correlated | -2.92% | ||
| AON - MRSH | 80% Closely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| WTW - MRSH | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.54% | ||
| RYAN - MRSH | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.70% | ||
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