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MTB vs WAFD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) vs. WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MTB reported strong first-half 2026 results with diluted EPS of $9.44, up 25% year over year, and improved asset quality metrics.
- WAFD announced a $3.9 billion reverse merger with EverBank Financial Corp. in early September 2026, positioning the combined entity for expanded scale.
- MTB increased its prime lending rate to 7.00% effective September 17, 2026, reflecting adjustments to the broader interest rate environment.
- WAFD delivered third-quarter fiscal 2026 EPS of $0.84, exceeding expectations, with net loan growth in active portfolios at an annualized 10.4%.
- MTB maintains a larger market capitalization and broader geographic footprint across the eastern United States compared to WAFD's western U.S. focus.
- Recent analyst sentiment includes an upgrade for MTB to Overweight, while WAFD carries a consensus Hold rating with a price target implying upside potential.
Introduction
Regional banks play a critical role in the U.S. financial system, offering localized lending and deposit services while navigating interest rate cycles and economic conditions. This comparison between MTB and WAFD examines two established players in the sector, highlighting differences in scale, recent operational results, and strategic developments. Institutional investors, portfolio managers, and traders seeking to assess relative positioning within the regional banking industry may find this analysis relevant for evaluating market positioning and performance trends.
MTB Overview and Recent Performance
M&T Bank Corporation operates as a bank holding company providing retail and commercial banking services primarily through its M&T Bank subsidiary, with operations spanning the eastern United States. In recent weeks, the stock has reflected steady institutional interest amid broader sector movements. Key developments include the announcement of second-quarter 2026 results showing revenue growth and an improved efficiency ratio, alongside a quarterly dividend declaration of $1.50 per share. Sentiment has been supported by an analyst upgrade to Overweight and the bank's decision to raise its prime rate to 7.00%, aligning with prevailing monetary policy signals. Asset quality metrics, such as lower net charge-offs, have contributed to a stable performance profile during recent market activity.
WAFD Overview and Recent Performance
WaFd, Inc. serves as the holding company for WaFd Bank, offering lending, deposit, and related financial services across nine western states. Recent market activity has centered on the company's third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, which featured an EPS beat and modest growth in net interest income. In early September 2026, WaFd announced a reverse merger agreement with EverBank Financial Corp. valued at approximately $3.9 billion, expected to close in early 2027 pending approvals. The stock has traded in a range influenced by these corporate developments, with analysts maintaining a Hold consensus and a price target suggesting potential appreciation. Operational highlights include continued focus on loan portfolio expansion and expense discipline.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MTB operates at a significantly larger scale, with a market capitalization exceeding $30 billion and a wider branch network, while WAFD maintains a more concentrated western footprint and smaller asset base around $28 billion. Growth drivers differ, with MTB benefiting from diversified commercial and retail segments alongside recent analyst momentum, whereas WAFD centers on a transformative merger that could enhance scale but introduces integration risks. Recent momentum favors MTB through earnings outperformance and rating upgrades, while WAFD shows resilience via earnings beats amid merger-related volatility. Risk factors include interest rate sensitivity for both, with MTB exhibiting lower beta historically and WAFD facing potential dilution or execution hurdles from the pending transaction. Sector exposure remains aligned within regional banking, though market sentiment appears more constructive toward MTB based on recent coverage.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in earnings delivery, capital strength, and analyst positioning, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to MTB over WAFD. The larger bank's demonstrated stability in net interest margin and asset quality, combined with positive momentum from upgrades, supports this relative assessment. WAFD presents compelling catalysts through its merger but carries elevated uncertainty around closing and integration outcomes. This evaluation reflects current data patterns rather than forward guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTB is a Hold and WAFD is a Hold.
MTB in -1.75% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on October 14, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where MTB declined for three days, in 157 of 268 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Aroon Indicator for MTB entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MTB's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 57 cases where MTB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTB as a result. In 47 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTB just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +0.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTB advanced for three days, in 203 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
MTB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.248) is normal, around the industry mean (1.323). P/E Ratio (11.670) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.509). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.307) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.488) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MTB’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
WAFD's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for WAFD entered a downward trend on October 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 234 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 154 of the 234 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for WAFD moved below the 200-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WAFD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where WAFD's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WAFD just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where WAFD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +2.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WAFD advanced for three days, in 164 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 28 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.839) is normal, around the industry mean (1.323). P/E Ratio (9.741) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.509). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.550) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.197) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WAFD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WAFD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
MTB | WAFD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 62 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 28 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 90 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 6 | 14 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WAFD's Valuation (28) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as MTB (49) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that WAFD’s stock grew similarly to MTB’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WAFD (90) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew somewhat faster than WAFD’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's SMR Rating (6) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WAFD (14) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew similarly to WAFD’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WAFD (64) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew similarly to WAFD’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's P/E Growth Rating (48) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WAFD (58) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew similarly to WAFD’s over the last 12 months.
| MTB | WAFD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 28 days ago 64% | 14 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTB’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while WAFD’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MTB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WAFD’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTB’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WAFD’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- WAFD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MTB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.50% price change this week, while WAFD (@Regional Banks) price change was -0.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.46%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.09%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTB is expected to report earnings on Oct 16, 2026.
WAFD is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.46% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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MTB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTB has been closely correlated with RF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTB jumps, then RF could also see price increases.
WAFD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WAFD has been closely correlated with UBSI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WAFD jumps, then UBSI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WAFD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAFD | 100% | +1.87% | ||
| UBSI - WAFD | 79% Closely correlated | +1.79% | ||
| FULT - WAFD | 78% Closely correlated | +2.29% | ||
| CATY - WAFD | 78% Closely correlated | +1.86% | ||
| EFSC - WAFD | 77% Closely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| CVBF - WAFD | 77% Closely correlated | +2.25% | ||
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