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MTH vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes (MTH) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MTH and TOL are publicly traded homebuilders operating in a housing market influenced by mortgage rates and buyer demand in recent weeks.
- MTH focuses on entry-level and move-up homes with reported second-quarter 2026 results released in late July, while TOL emphasizes luxury properties and is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results on August 18, 2026.
- Year-to-date performance shows both stocks delivering returns near 10-12% amid broader market gains, with TOL exhibiting stronger one-year returns compared to MTH.
- Sector exposure remains tied to residential construction, where affordability challenges and interest rate sensitivity continue to shape relative momentum for each company.
- Market sentiment reflects mixed signals for the housing sector, with luxury-focused builders like TOL generally demonstrating greater resilience to rate fluctuations than entry-level peers.
- Valuation metrics and earnings expectations provide key contrasts, as analysts monitor order trends and backlog conversion in the current environment.
Introduction
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) and Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) represent two distinct segments within the U.S. homebuilding industry. This comparison examines their business models, recent stock behavior, and positioning amid evolving housing market conditions. Institutional investors, active traders, and portfolio managers evaluating sector allocation or relative value opportunities may find this analysis relevant for understanding performance drivers and risk profiles in the residential construction space.
Meritage Homes (MTH) Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation designs, builds, and sells single-family homes primarily in entry-level and first-time move-up segments across multiple U.S. markets. In recent market activity, the stock has traded in a range near $72, reflecting broader sector pressures from elevated mortgage rates and moderated buyer sentiment. The company released its second-quarter 2026 financial results in late July, providing updated visibility into order trends and margins. Performance over recent weeks has shown modest volatility consistent with peer homebuilders, influenced by macroeconomic data on employment and interest rates. Overall, MTH has delivered year-to-date returns of approximately 10-12%, with one-year results remaining relatively flat amid sector headwinds.
Toll Brothers (TOL) Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. specializes in luxury single-family homes and communities targeted at higher-income buyers across select U.S. markets. The stock has recently traded near $148, supported by the company’s focus on less rate-sensitive clientele and ongoing community openings. Fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings are anticipated on August 18, with consensus estimates reflecting potential year-over-year declines in earnings per share. In recent market activity, TOL has posted year-to-date returns around 10% and stronger one-year gains near 14-16%, outperforming some peers in the luxury segment. Sentiment has benefited from demonstrated resilience in demand for premium properties despite ongoing affordability challenges in the wider housing market.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Meritage Homes (MTH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) differ markedly in target markets, with MTH emphasizing affordable and move-up homes while TOL concentrates on luxury properties that typically attract less interest-rate-sensitive buyers. Growth drivers for MTH center on volume in entry-level segments, whereas TOL benefits from higher average selling prices and selective geographic expansion. Recent momentum favors TOL on a one-year basis, though both stocks have posted comparable year-to-date gains near 10%. Risk factors include inventory management and margin pressure for MTH versus potential earnings volatility tied to fewer but larger transactions for TOL. Sector exposure remains identical, yet market sentiment has highlighted luxury resilience amid mixed housing data. Trade-offs involve MTH’s potentially lower valuation multiples against TOL’s demonstrated pricing power and backlog stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including more consistent one-year trend performance, relative stability in luxury demand, and upcoming earnings visibility, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to TOL over MTH in the present market environment. This assessment rests on comparative momentum indicators and sector positioning rather than forward projections.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a Hold and TOL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +0.40% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was -0.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -0.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-0.67% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MTH | TOL | MTH / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 4.73B | 13.6B | 35% |
| EBITDA | 451M | 1.7B | 27% |
| Gain YTD | 11.780 | 9.641 | 122% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.11 | 11.88 | 127% |
| Revenue | 5.4B | 11B | 49% |
| Total Cash | 807M | 1.11B | 73% |
| Total Debt | 1.91B | 2.92B | 65% |
MTH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 75 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 6 Undervalued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 41 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 27 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (6) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TOL (64). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (64). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (54). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (27). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 69% | 20 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 71% | 7 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 63% |
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with KBH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then KBH could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.