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NDAQ vs SPGI
SPGI vs NDAQ Stock Comparison: Earnings Recap as S&P’s Guidance Shock Meets Nasdaq’s Tech Momentum
Key Takeaways
- S&P Global (SPGI) reported Q4 2025 revenue of $3.92B, up 9% YoY, beating estimates; adjusted EPS of $4.30 missed consensus of $4.32.
- SPGI shares dropped ~10% post-earnings due to FY2026 EPS guidance of $19.40-$19.65 below Street expectations of ~$19.96.
- Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) Q4 2025 net revenue hit $1.4B, up 13% YoY; non-GAAP EPS $0.96 beat estimates, full-year net revenue exceeded $5.2B.
- Both firms showed resilient growth in data, indices, and financial tech amid market volatility; SPGI focuses on ratings/AI, NDAQ on solutions ARR up 10%.
- SPGI returned over $5B via repurchases/dividends in 2025; NDAQ repurchased $616M shares, repaid $826M debt.
- Investor focus shifts to SPGI's conservative 2026 outlook vs NDAQ's momentum into Q1 2026.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
S&P Global's Q4 2025 earnings, released February 10, 2026, cap a transformative year for financial data leaders, highlighting resilience in ratings, indices, and analytics amid economic uncertainty. Comparing SPGI to Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ), which reported strong Q4 results on January 29, underscores competitive dynamics in capital markets infrastructure. Both companies benefit from recurring subscription revenue—SPGI via credit ratings and benchmarks, NDAQ through exchange tech and solutions platforms—but face headwinds from transaction volumes and AI-driven shifts. Investors weigh SPGI's scale against NDAQ's tech diversification for exposure to market data demand and growth stability.
SPGI Earnings Focus
S&P Global released Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 10, 2026. Revenue reached $3.92 billion, up 9% YoY and beating consensus of $3.89-$3.90B. Adjusted diluted EPS was $4.30, up 14% YoY but missing estimates of $4.32 by $0.02. GAAP diluted EPS stood at $3.75, up 32% YoY. Full-year revenue was $15.34B (up 8%), adjusted EPS $17.83 (up 14%).
Highlights included Ratings and Indices growth of 12% and 14%, private markets up 16%, and 60bps operating margin expansion to 47.3%. FY2026 guidance: 6-8% organic revenue growth, adjusted EPS $19.40-$19.65 (9-10% growth). Shares fell ~10% on the EPS miss and light guidance, despite $5B+ shareholder returns.
NDAQ Context and Earnings Relevance
Nasdaq Inc. reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results on January 29, 2026, with no imminent earnings event. Q4 net revenue was $1.4B, up 13% YoY (reported/organic); solutions revenue $1.1B, up 13%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.96, up 27% YoY (beat $0.92 est.); GAAP EPS $0.90, up 47%. Full-year net revenue exceeded $5.2B (up 13%), solutions $4.0B (up 12%), non-GAAP EPS $3.48 (up 24%). ARR reached $3.1B, up 10%.
Financial Technology ARR grew 14% organically; Index revenue up 23% in Q4. Outlook includes non-GAAP opex $2.455-$2.535B, tax rate 22.5-24.5%. Strong cash flow ($2.3B ops) supported $601M dividends, $616M repurchases. Market sentiment remains positive on tech diversification vs. SPGI's ratings exposure.
AI Trading Bot Perspective
Tickeron offers an AI-driven trading bot for NDAQ featuring a corridor strategy with 2% take-profit (TP) and 2% stop-loss (SL) levels. Operating on a 60-minute timeframe, it uses pattern recognition and machine learning to generate buy/sell signals, applying fixed risk corridors for disciplined exits. Historical performance on similar bots shows strong annualized returns (e.g., up to 30%+ in tested environments), though results vary by market conditions. Details and results available at Tickeron NDAQ Bot.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
SPGI's Q4 revenue growth (9%) trailed NDAQ's (13%), but full-year scale ($15.3B vs. $5.2B) reflects broader diversification. EPS beats were mixed: SPGI missed slightly amid margin gains; NDAQ exceeded on solutions momentum. Growth drivers differ—SPGI leverages ratings issuance and AI analytics (private markets +16%), NDAQ index ETP AUM ($882B) and ARR (+10%). Risks include SPGI's transaction sensitivity and conservative guidance; NDAQ faces volume volatility but benefits from tech efficiencies ($160M savings). Sentiment favors NDAQ's beat trajectory post-SPGAI spin plans, though SPGI offers higher stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI analysis leans toward NDAQ based on superior Q4 beat, higher organic growth (13% vs. 9%), and ARR stability signaling sustained momentum into 2026. SPGI's earnings quality remains robust with margin expansion, but light guidance introduces near-term caution. Probabilistic edge to NDAQ for trends in financial tech exposure, absent personal advice.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NDAQ is a StrongBuy and SPGI is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NDAQ’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSPGI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NDAQ’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SPGI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NDAQ’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPGI’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NDAQ’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SPGI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
NDAQ (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а -4.03% price change this week, while SPGI (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was -3.65% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +1.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.96%.
Reported Earning Dates
NDAQ is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
SPGI is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+1.06% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
| NDAQ | SPGI | NDAQ / SPGI | |
| Capitalization | 47.3B | 123B | 38% |
| EBITDA | 3.13B | 7.69B | 41% |
| Gain YTD | -14.112 | -20.323 | 69% |
| P/E Ratio | 26.91 | 28.34 | 95% |
| Revenue | 8.26B | 15.3B | 54% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 1.8B | - |
| Total Debt | 9.47B | 13.6B | 70% |
NDAQ | SPGI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 60 Fair valued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 72 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 82 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 1 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NDAQ's Valuation (60) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as SPGI (64) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPGI (72) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's SMR Rating (52) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as SPGI (55) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as SPGI (63) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
SPGI's P/E Growth Rating (82) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as NDAQ (85) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that SPGI’s stock grew similarly to NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
| NDAQ | SPGI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 51% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 65% | 8 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 45% | 4 days ago 57% |
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NDAQ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NDAQ has been closely correlated with MCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NDAQ jumps, then MCO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NDAQ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDAQ | 100% | -1.25% | ||
| MCO - NDAQ | 78% Closely correlated | -2.47% | ||
| SPGI - NDAQ | 77% Closely correlated | -2.10% | ||
| JEF - NDAQ | 71% Closely correlated | +1.44% | ||
| MS - NDAQ | 71% Closely correlated | -0.29% | ||
| GS - NDAQ | 70% Closely correlated | +0.45% | ||
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