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TCBI vs WTFC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) vs. Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both TCBI and WTFC operate as regional banks with robust profitability, but TCBI shows superior year-to-date (YTD) performance at 16.8% versus WTFC's 6.8%.
- WTFC edges out with higher return on equity (ROE, a measure of profitability relative to shareholders' equity) at 12.11% compared to TCBI's 9.44%.
- TCBI reported stronger recent quarterly earnings growth of 41.7% year-over-year (YoY), outpacing WTFC's 20.3%.
- WTFC has a larger market capitalization of $10.04 billion and lower trailing price-to-earnings (P/E, stock price relative to earnings) ratio at 13.06.
- Both stocks trade near their 52-week highs, reflecting positive market sentiment in recent weeks.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines TCBI and WTFC, two regional banking players navigating a dynamic market shaped by interest rate adjustments and economic resilience. Investors focused on the financial sector, seeking relative performance insights amid shifting net interest margins (NIM, the difference between interest income and expense) and loan growth, will find value here. By analyzing recent momentum, financial metrics, and sector positioning, this review highlights key contrasts to inform portfolio decisions in the current environment.
TCBI Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI) is a Dallas-headquartered bank holding company providing commercial banking, investment banking, and wealth management services primarily in Texas markets. In recent market activity, shares have climbed about 16.8% YTD and trade near the 52-week high of $108.92, supported by a Q4 2025 earnings beat with revenue of $327.48 million and EPS of $2.08. Quarterly revenue grew 19.1% YoY, while earnings surged 41.7%, bolstering sentiment amid favorable loan demand and deposit growth. The stock's trailing P/E of 15.58 and ROE of 9.44% reflect solid positioning, though exposure to commercial real estate introduces some volatility.
WTFC Overview and Recent Performance
Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC), based in Rosemont, Illinois, delivers community banking, specialty finance, and wealth management across the Midwest through three segments. Recent performance includes a Q1 2026 earnings report exceeding expectations, with record net income, EPS of $3.22 (versus $2.96 estimated), and revenue of $713.17 million. Shares are up 6.8% YTD, with a market cap of $10.04 billion and ROE of 12.11%. Quarterly revenue increased 10.5% YoY and earnings 20.3%, driven by strong deposit growth and insurance premium financing, though the stock remains below its 52-week high of $162.96.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both TCBI and WTFC focus on regional banking but differ in scale and emphasis: TCBI leans into commercial and investment banking in Texas, while WTFC emphasizes community lending and specialty finance in the Midwest. Growth drivers favor TCBI with faster recent revenue and earnings expansion, contrasted by WTFC's superior profit margins (31.35%) and ROE. Momentum tilts to TCBI via YTD gains and proximity to highs, versus WTFC's value appeal from a lower forward P/E of 12.15. Risk factors include shared sensitivity to interest rates and credit quality, with WTFC offering broader diversification. Market sentiment remains constructive for both amid stabilizing economic signals.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models would likely favor TCBI in the current environment, given its stronger YTD momentum, elevated growth rates, and position near 52-week highs, signaling trend consistency and positive relative strength over WTFC.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is TCBI is a Hold and WTFC is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
TCBI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileWTFC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- TCBI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WTFC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
TCBI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WTFC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- TCBI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- WTFC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
TCBI (@Regional Banks) experienced а -1.15% price change this week, while WTFC (@Regional Banks) price change was +0.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
TCBI is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
WTFC is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.31% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| TCBI | WTFC | TCBI / WTFC | |
| Capitalization | 4.43B | 10.6B | 42% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 10.195 | 13.421 | 76% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.41 | 13.06 | 103% |
| Revenue | 1.3B | 2.8B | 46% |
| Total Cash | 254M | 468M | 54% |
| Total Debt | 878M | 4.34B | 20% |
TCBI | WTFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 24 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 24 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 98 | 45 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WTFC's Valuation (70) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (77). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's Profit vs Risk Rating (24) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (46). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's SMR Rating (15) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (24). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (48). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's P/E Growth Rating (45) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TCBI (98). This means that WTFC’s stock grew somewhat faster than TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
| TCBI | WTFC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 23 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 62% |
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|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| EPAI | 31.15 | 0.76 | +2.51% |
| Harbor AI Inflection Strategy ETF | |||
| FNY | 108.78 | 0.84 | +0.78% |
| First Trust Mid Cap Growth AlphaDEX® ETF | |||
| PPIE | 28.10 | N/A | N/A |
| Putnam PanAgora ESG International Equity ETF | |||
| FDL | 48.97 | -0.08 | -0.16% |
| First Trust Morningstar Div Leaders ETF | |||
| NMT | 12.77 | -0.20 | -1.54% |
| Nuveen Massachusetts Quality Municipal Income Fund | |||
TCBI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TCBI has been closely correlated with SBCF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TCBI jumps, then SBCF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TCBI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCBI | 100% | +0.50% | ||
| SBCF - TCBI | 87% Closely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| FNB - TCBI | 86% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| ONB - TCBI | 86% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| ASB - TCBI | 85% Closely correlated | +0.62% | ||
| WTFC - TCBI | 85% Closely correlated | +1.10% | ||
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