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TTE vs XOM
TTE vs XOM Stock Comparison: Earnings Recap Q4 2025 Beat vs Steady Performance
Key Takeaways
- TotalEnergies (TTE) reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.73, slightly beating consensus estimates of $1.72, with full-year adjusted net income of $15.6 billion.
- ExxonMobil (XOM) posted Q4 2025 EPS of $1.71 excluding items (GAAP $1.53), ahead of $1.69 estimates, and full-year earnings of $28.8 billion.
- TTE shares rose over 4% post-earnings to around $77.72, reflecting positive reaction to production growth and dividend hike.
- XOM delivered record upstream production and $37.2 billion in shareholder distributions for 2025, emphasizing cost savings and cash flow strength.
- Both majors showed resilience amid lower oil prices, with TTE guiding 3% upstream growth and XOM planning $27-29 billion capex in 2026.
- TTE offers higher dividend yield at 5.24%, while XOM prioritizes aggressive share repurchases through 2026.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
TotalEnergies' Q4 2025 earnings, released February 11, 2026, highlight its balanced strategy in a volatile energy market, with upstream production up nearly 4% and refining margins providing a buffer against 15% lower oil prices. Comparing TTE to ExxonMobil (XOM), which reported strong Q4 results on January 30, underscores key dynamics in the integrated oil sector. Both face similar headwinds from softer commodity prices but differentiate through TTE's aggressive push into low-carbon electricity (25% growth targeted for 2026) versus XOM's focus on high-return oil and gas assets like Permian and Guyana. Investors weigh TTE's European exposure and renewables tilt against XOM's U.S.-centric scale and shareholder returns, making this matchup essential for assessing stability and growth in energy portfolios.
TTE Earnings Focus
TotalEnergies SE released Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 11, 2026, reporting adjusted net income of $3.84 billion for the quarter and $15.6 billion annually, down 15% year-over-year due to lower hydrocarbon prices. Revenues reached $45.93 billion in Q4, beating Zacks estimates by 25%. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.73, edging past the $1.72 consensus (some sources cite $1.65-$1.80 range). Cash flow held steady at $27.8 billion for the year, supported by 3.9% upstream production growth exceeding guidance. The board proposed a 5.6% dividend increase to €3.40/share ($3.91 annualized yield) and $3-6 billion in 2026 buybacks at $60/bbl Brent, starting with $750 million in Q1. Shares surged over 4% to $77.72, buoyed by resilient cash generation and 12.6% ROCE, best among majors.
XOM Context and Earnings Relevance
ExxonMobil reported Q4 2025 earnings on January 30, 2026, with GAAP net income of $6.5 billion ($1.53 EPS) and $7.3 billion ($1.71 EPS) excluding items, topping $1.69 estimates. Revenues were $82.3 billion, slightly above forecasts. Full-year earnings totaled $28.8 billion on $332.2 billion revenue, down from 2024 amid weaker prices, but offset by record upstream output (4.7M boe/d) and refining throughput. Operating cash flow hit $52 billion, enabling $37.2 billion shareholder distributions ($17.2B dividends, $20B buybacks). Guidance includes $27-29 billion 2026 capex and continued $20 billion annual repurchases. The stock climbed post-earnings, reflecting execution on advantaged assets (59% of production) and $15.1 billion cumulative cost savings since 2019.
AI Trading Bot Perspective
Tickeron provides AI-driven trading bots tailored for TTE and XOM. For TTE, the Trend Trader for Beginners Strategy targets large-cap stocks on a 60-minute timeframe using technical analysis, suitable for novice investors seeking trend-following opportunities. For XOM, the AI Trading Agent employs a corridor strategy with 3:2 take-profit to stop-loss ratio on 60-minute charts, delivering results based on historical backtested performance. These bots offer automated signals to capitalize on volatility around earnings and sector trends. TTE AI Bot | XOM AI Bot
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
TTE and XOM both beat Q4 EPS whispers, but XOM's scale shone with higher absolute earnings ($7.3B adjusted vs. TTE's $3.84B) and superior cash flow ($52B vs. $27.8B). Growth drivers diverge: TTE's 3.9% production rise and electricity expansion contrast XOM's record volumes from Permian/Guyana and LNG ramps. Risk factors include TTE's European regulatory pressures and renewables capex ($4B in 2026), while XOM faces chemical margin volatility. Industry exposure favors XOM's U.S. shale dominance (lower breakevens) over TTE's global upstream. Market sentiment tilts to XOM's 29% five-year shareholder returns and ROCE leadership, though TTE's dividend edge appeals to income seekers. Trade-offs: TTE for transition plays, XOM for oil/gas purity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently favor XOM based on superior earnings quality, unmatched cash generation, and structural cost advantages positioning it for sustained returns amid oil price uncertainty. TTE's beats and growth trajectory warrant monitoring, particularly if renewables accelerate, but XOM's probabilistic edge lies in scale and execution trends.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is TTE is a Buy and XOM is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
TTE’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileXOM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- TTE’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
TTE’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- TTE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
TTE (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -5.14% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was -7.14% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -5.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.40%.
Reported Earning Dates
TTE is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-5.07% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| TTE | XOM | TTE / XOM | |
| Capitalization | 197B | 584B | 34% |
| EBITDA | 43B | 64.4B | 67% |
| Gain YTD | 28.508 | 18.682 | 153% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.47 | 23.72 | 53% |
| Revenue | 184B | 326B | 56% |
| Total Cash | 29.9B | 8.44B | 354% |
| Total Debt | 64B | 47.7B | 134% |
TTE | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 22 Undervalued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 64 | 73 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 17 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TTE's Valuation (22) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (45). This means that TTE’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
TTE's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (10). This means that TTE’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
TTE's SMR Rating (64) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (73). This means that TTE’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
TTE's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (48). This means that TTE’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as TTE (34). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to TTE’s over the last 12 months.
| TTE | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 54% | 14 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 48% | 12 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 61% |
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TTE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TTE has been loosely correlated with CRGY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TTE jumps, then CRGY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TTE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTE | 100% | -4.49% | ||
| CRGY - TTE | 60% Loosely correlated | -4.84% | ||
| E - TTE | 52% Loosely correlated | -4.17% | ||
| SHEL - TTE | 49% Loosely correlated | -3.56% | ||
| BP - TTE | 48% Loosely correlated | -2.78% | ||
| EQNR - TTE | 45% Loosely correlated | -5.31% | ||
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