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AVB or FR or SPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AvalonBay Communities (AVB) vs. First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) vs. Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AVB has shown resilience in recent weeks with strong Q1 2026 core FFO (funds from operations) beating estimates at $2.15 per share, supported by 96.1% occupancy, though YTD returns lag at around 2.66%.
- FR leads YTD performance at approximately 10%, driven by robust Q1 leasing with 8.7% same-store NOI (net operating income) growth and cash rental rates up 32%.
- SPG delivers solid YTD gains near 10% and superior 1-year returns of over 30%, bolstered by high occupancy around 96% and strategic international expansions.
- All three REITs (real estate investment trusts) offer attractive dividend yields above 3.5%, with SPG at roughly 4.3%, providing income stability amid varying sector exposures.
- Recent market activity highlights industrial strength in FR versus residential pressures on AVB, while retail resilience supports SPG.
- Volatility remains moderate across the trio, with betas under 1.4, positioning them for relative stability in a REIT sector rebound.
Introduction
This comparison examines three prominent REITs: AVB (multifamily residential), FR (industrial logistics), and SPG (retail properties). Investors and traders focused on income generation, sector diversification, and relative performance in the real estate market will find value here. Amid shifting interest rates and economic signals, these stocks highlight contrasts in property types, occupancy trends, and growth drivers. Recent quarters underscore industrial and retail momentum versus residential headwinds, aiding decisions on portfolio allocation in a recovering REIT landscape.
AVB Overview and Recent Performance
AvalonBay Communities (AVB), an S&P 500 equity REIT, owns and develops over 98,000 apartment homes in high-demand U.S. markets like New England, New York, and coastal California. In recent market activity, AVB reported strong Q1 2026 results, with core FFO per share of $2.15 exceeding expectations, driven by 96.1% occupancy and lower expenses. Same-store revenue grew 1.6%, though operating costs rose 4.7%, yielding modest 0.2% NOI growth. The company advanced portfolio optimization via Texas acquisitions and $340 million in asset sales, generating significant GAAP gains. Stock repurchases totaling $198 million reflect confidence, with shares up around 8-9% in recent weeks from lows near $160, though YTD returns hover at 2.66% amid multifamily supply pressures. Sentiment benefits from development yields in the low-to-mid 6% range and a solid balance sheet.
FR Overview and Recent Performance
First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) specializes in owning, operating, and developing logistics properties, totaling about 71.6 million square feet across 15 major U.S. markets. Recent performance shines with Q1 2026 cash same-store NOI up 8.7% and cash rental rates surging 32%, fueled by robust leasing of 383,000 square feet in developments. The company resolved a key tenant issue, collecting 60% of owed balances, and raised full-year FFO guidance to $3.05-$3.15 per share. Shares have gained around 4% in recent weeks, with YTD returns near 10% and 1-year gains over 22%, outperforming peers. Strong demand for industrial space, evidenced by 41% rental rate hikes on 2026 leases, bolsters sentiment, alongside a new $250 million share repurchase program.
SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group (SPG), a leading retail REIT, manages premier malls, outlets, and mixed-use destinations globally, with interests in 229 properties spanning 183 million square feet. In recent weeks, SPG navigated leadership transition following CEO David Simon's passing, appointing Eli Simon as successor, while maintaining operational strength at 96.4% occupancy. Q4 2025 results showed real estate FFO of $3.49 per share beating estimates, with 2026 guidance at $13.00-$13.25. Shares rose about 1% recently, with YTD gains around 10% and 1-year returns exceeding 30%, supported by Italian outlet acquisitions and a $2 billion buyback. Redevelopment projects and $9 billion liquidity enhance positioning amid retail recovery.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AVB, FR, and SPG operate distinct business models: residential apartments for AVB, industrial warehouses for FR, and retail malls/outlets for SPG. Growth drivers diverge, with FR benefiting from e-commerce logistics demand yielding 8.7% NOI growth, versus AVB's modest 0.2% amid supply glut, and SPG's redevelopment-fueled 96%+ occupancy. Recent momentum favors FR and SPG with ~10% YTD gains over AVB's 2.66%, reflecting industrial/retail resilience. Risk factors include interest rate sensitivity across all, but AVB faces regulatory and concession pressures, FR tenant credits (recently resolved), and SPG consumer spending volatility. Sector exposures highlight industrial outperformance, residential stabilization, and retail rebound. Valuation-wise, all trade at reasonable multiples with yields of 3.8-4.3%; SPG offers highest income but higher beta (~1.36), while AVB and FR show lower volatility (betas ~0.8). Trade-offs center on income stability (SPG) versus growth potential (FR).
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors FR based on superior trend consistency, with 10% YTD returns, 8.7% NOI growth, and strong leasing momentum positioning it ahead in industrial demand. Relative stability and raised FFO guidance enhance its edge over AVB's residential challenges and SPG's transition risks, though all show probabilistic upside in a rate-easing environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVB’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileFR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and SPG’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- AVB’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- FR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SPG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVB’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and SPG’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- FR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SPG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AVB (@Media Conglomerates) experienced а +2.59% price change this week, while FR (@Miscellaneous Manufacturing) price change was +2.01% , and SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price fluctuated +2.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Media Conglomerates industry was +2.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.44%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry was +3.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.10%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.15%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was +3.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.31%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVB is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
FR is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
SPG is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Media Conglomerates (+2.66% weekly)Companies that operate in these three (or more) areas: broadcasting, cable TV, publishing and movies/entertainment. The companies usually have a large share in these markets. Walt Disney Co . is an example.
@Miscellaneous Manufacturing (+3.83% weekly)Miscellaneous manufacturing refers to a diverse range of products that cannot readily be categorized into other specific sectors of manufacturing. Major U.S. players in this industry include AMETEK, Inc.( analytical instruments, precision components and specialty materials), Dover Corporation (solutions for efficiency and safety of extracting oil and gas, e.g. rod lifts, progressing cavity pumps, gas lifts etc.; solutions for the transportation/transformation of solid waste; products for safe handling of critical fluids for various industries; systems for commercial-refrigeration, heating and cooling, and food and beverage packaging), and Carlisle Companies Incorporated (niche markets including commercial roofing, energy, lawn and garden, mining and construction equipment, aerospace and electronics, dining and food delivery, and healthcare), among others.
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (+3.24% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
| AVB | FR | SPG | |
| Capitalization | 26.6B | 8.07B | 67.2B |
| EBITDA | 2.35B | 633M | 8.23B |
| Gain YTD | 4.628 | 7.258 | 13.302 |
| P/E Ratio | 23.25 | 23.51 | 14.42 |
| Revenue | 3.07B | 745M | 6.65B |
| Total Cash | 121M | 37.1M | 543M |
| Total Debt | 9.52B | 2.58B | 29B |
AVB | FR | SPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 76 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 14 Undervalued | 96 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 53 | 24 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 73 | 64 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 48 | 29 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 55 | 90 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 26 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FR's Valuation (14) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AVB (76) and is significantly better than the same rating for SPG (96). This means that FR's stock grew somewhat faster than AVB’s and significantly faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (24) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as FR (53) and is somewhat better than the same rating for AVB (83). This means that SPG's stock grew similarly to FR’s and somewhat faster than AVB’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (11) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FR (64) and is somewhat better than the same rating for AVB (73). This means that SPG's stock grew somewhat faster than FR’s and somewhat faster than AVB’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Price Growth Rating (29) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as FR (48) and is in the same range as AVB (49). This means that SPG's stock grew similarly to FR’s and similarly to AVB’s over the last 12 months.
FR's P/E Growth Rating (55) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as AVB (60) and is somewhat better than the same rating for SPG (90). This means that FR's stock grew similarly to AVB’s and somewhat faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
| AVB | FR | SPG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 43% | 6 days ago 51% | 5 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 46% | 9 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 49% |
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AVB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVB has been closely correlated with EQR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AVB jumps, then EQR could also see price increases.
FR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FR has been closely correlated with EGP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FR jumps, then EGP could also see price increases.
SPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPG has been closely correlated with FR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPG jumps, then FR could also see price increases.