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CAL or GAP or URBN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Caleres (CAL) vs. The Gap (GAP) vs. Urban Outfitters (URBN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Caleres (CAL) reported improved earnings guidance and appointed a new CFO in recent weeks, supporting modest stock gains amid broader retail sector pressures.
- The Gap (GAP) has experienced stagnant sales trends and mixed relative performance, with year-to-date declines reflecting cautious consumer spending in apparel.
- Urban Outfitters (URBN) delivered record first-quarter sales and earnings that exceeded estimates, driving stronger recent momentum compared to peers.
- All three companies operate in the consumer discretionary retail sector, exposing them to similar macroeconomic factors such as inflation, consumer sentiment, and supply chain dynamics.
- Valuation sensitivity varies, with URBN showing more robust growth drivers while CAL and GAP face greater challenges in maintaining comparable sales momentum.
- Market sentiment has been influenced by earnings reports and leadership changes, creating distinct short-term trading opportunities across the group.
Introduction
This comparison examines Caleres (CAL), The Gap (GAP), and Urban Outfitters (URBN), three retailers with distinct brand portfolios in footwear and apparel. The analysis focuses on recent performance, business positioning, and market dynamics to assist traders and investors evaluating relative opportunities in the consumer discretionary sector. Portfolio managers, swing traders, and fundamental analysts monitoring retail earnings cycles may find the side-by-side review useful for assessing sector rotation and individual stock selection within a diversified equity allocation.
CAL Overview and Recent Performance
Caleres (CAL) operates as a footwear retailer and wholesaler through brands including Famous Footwear and its Brand Portfolio. In recent weeks, the company appointed Dan Karpel as permanent Chief Financial Officer and raised its first-quarter adjusted earnings per share guidance, citing operational improvements. Stock price behavior showed modest gains following the announcements, though broader one-year returns have lagged the S&P 500 amid industry headwinds. Sentiment has been supported by margin expansion efforts and leadership stability, while comparable sales trends remain sensitive to consumer discretionary spending patterns.
GAP Overview and Recent Performance
The Gap (GAP) manages a portfolio of apparel brands including Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta. Recent market activity reflects ongoing challenges with sales growth, as the company navigates a competitive retail environment and shifting consumer preferences. Year-to-date performance has been negative, with the stock trading in a range influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty. Sentiment remains tempered by cautious outlooks ahead of upcoming earnings, though dividend yield provides some support for income-oriented investors monitoring the name.
URBN Overview and Recent Performance
Urban Outfitters (URBN) encompasses lifestyle brands such as Urban Outfitters, Free People, and Anthropologie, along with its Nuuly rental subscription service. The company posted record first-quarter sales and net income that surpassed analyst expectations, with broad-based comparable sales growth across segments. Recent stock behavior reflected positive reaction to the results, contributing to outperformance relative to sector peers in the near term. Sentiment has benefited from execution on growth initiatives and inventory management, positioning the company amid evolving retail trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Caleres (CAL) focuses primarily on footwear with a mix of retail and wholesale channels, offering differentiation from the apparel-centric models of The Gap (GAP) and Urban Outfitters (URBN). Growth drivers for CAL center on brand portfolio optimization and margin recovery, while GAP contends with legacy brand revitalization and URBN benefits from subscription momentum and multi-brand appeal. Recent momentum favors URBN following its earnings beat, contrasting with more measured responses to CAL’s guidance raise and GAP’s ongoing sales stabilization efforts. Risk factors include inventory management and consumer spending sensitivity for all three, though URBN’s diversified revenue streams may provide relative resilience. Sector exposure to discretionary retail heightens valuation sensitivity to interest rates and economic data releases, with market sentiment shifting based on quarterly results rather than uniform sector trends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as earnings consistency, recent catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a higher probability of favorable near-term performance to Urban Outfitters (URBN). Its record quarterly results and broad growth across segments provide stronger trend signals compared to the guidance adjustments at Caleres (CAL) or the more cautious backdrop at The Gap (GAP). This assessment reflects probabilistic weighting of available data rather than certainty, and market conditions can shift rapidly.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CAL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileGAP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and URBN’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- CAL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- GAP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- URBN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CAL’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GAP’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and URBN’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CAL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- GAP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- URBN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CAL (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) experienced а -8.36% price change this week, while GAP (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) price change was -6.70% , and URBN (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) price fluctuated -5.53% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear Retail industry was +0.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.19%.
Reported Earning Dates
CAL is expected to report earnings on Sep 02, 2026.
GAP is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
URBN is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Apparel/Footwear Retail (+0.22% weekly)Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.
| CAL | GAP | URBN | |
| Capitalization | 412M | 7.36B | 6.08B |
| EBITDA | 85M | 1.91B | 730M |
| Gain YTD | 1.986 | -18.381 | -3.335 |
| P/E Ratio | 16.77 | 8.18 | 13.99 |
| Revenue | 2.81B | 15.4B | 6.17B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 2.56B | 696M |
| Total Debt | 891M | 5.64B | 1.23B |
CAL | GAP | URBN | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 23 | 20 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 13 Undervalued | 16 Undervalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 35 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 61 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 63 | 52 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 8 | 85 | 27 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CAL's Valuation (13) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as GAP (16) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for URBN (82) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that CAL's stock grew similarly to GAP’s and significantly faster than URBN’s over the last 12 months.
URBN's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is significantly better than the same rating for CAL (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for GAP (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that URBN's stock grew significantly faster than CAL’s and significantly faster than GAP’s over the last 12 months.
GAP's SMR Rating (35) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as URBN (50) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for CAL (92) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry. This means that GAP's stock grew similarly to URBN’s and somewhat faster than CAL’s over the last 12 months.
CAL's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as URBN (47) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry, and is in the same range as GAP (61) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that CAL's stock grew similarly to URBN’s and similarly to GAP’s over the last 12 months.
CAL's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is somewhat better than the same rating for URBN (52) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for GAP (63) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that CAL's stock grew somewhat faster than URBN’s and somewhat faster than GAP’s over the last 12 months.
| CAL | GAP | URBN | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 77% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 72% | 9 days ago 75% | 15 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 77% | 7 days ago 80% | 7 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 76% |
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GAP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GAP has been loosely correlated with DBI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GAP jumps, then DBI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GAP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAP | 100% | -2.51% | ||
| DBI - GAP | 56% Loosely correlated | -3.32% | ||
| BKE - GAP | 54% Loosely correlated | -0.77% | ||
| URBN - GAP | 53% Loosely correlated | -4.80% | ||
| CAL - GAP | 50% Loosely correlated | -3.58% | ||
| SHOE - GAP | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.31% | ||
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URBN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, URBN has been loosely correlated with DBI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if URBN jumps, then DBI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To URBN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| URBN | 100% | -4.80% | ||
| DBI - URBN | 56% Loosely correlated | -3.32% | ||
| ANF - URBN | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.34% | ||
| GAP - URBN | 53% Loosely correlated | -2.51% | ||
| SHOE - URBN | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.31% | ||
| AEO - URBN | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.11% | ||
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