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CRGY or CVE or PBR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Crescent Energy (CRGY) vs. Cenovus Energy (CVE) vs. Petrobras (PBR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CRGY reported strong Q1 2026 earnings with revenue up 24.5% year-over-year and EPS beating estimates by 34.76%, driving year-to-date gains of around 60% and outperforming the oils-energy sector.
- CVE achieved record upstream production of 972,100 BOE/d in Q1 2026, with EPS of $0.61 topping consensus, supporting YTD returns near 68% amid integrated operations.
- PBR benefits from Brazil's pre-salt fields and high dividend yield around 5%, with YTD performance exceeding 70%, though exposed to geopolitical and currency risks.
- All three stocks have shown robust relative performance in recent market activity, with CVE and PBR leading in scale (market caps $53B+), while CRGY offers growth via acquisitions like Vital Energy.
- Valuation contrasts: CRGY trades at an attractive forward P/E under 9x with 3.9% yield; CVE and PBR reflect integrated models with higher EV/EBITDA multiples.
- Energy sector tailwinds from oil prices support momentum, but volatility tied to commodity cycles affects sentiment across the trio.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines CRGY, an independent U.S. oil and gas explorer, CVE, a Canadian integrated energy firm focused on oil sands, and PBR, Brazil's state-controlled oil giant. These companies operate in the upstream and integrated energy segments, benefiting from recent oil price strength amid global supply dynamics. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing dividends or growth in oils-energy will find value in analyzing their relative performance, recent catalysts like earnings beats, and sector exposures. This analysis highlights contrasts in scale, regional risks, and market positioning for informed decision-making in the current environment.
CRGY Overview and Recent Performance
Crescent Energy (CRGY) is an independent exploration and production (E&P) company focused on crude oil and natural gas assets in the U.S., including the Eagle Ford, Uinta, and Permian basins following its acquisition of Vital Energy. This deal elevated it to one of the top 10 U.S. independents, expanding its footprint across 1.4 million net acres. In recent market activity, CRGY shares have delivered strong gains, up over 60% year-to-date, outpacing the oils-energy sector's 32% advance. Q1 2026 results showed revenue of $1.18 billion, a 24.5% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $0.53 surpassing estimates by 34.76%. Adjusted EBITDA hit $705 million, beating forecasts amid higher production. Sentiment has been buoyed by acquisition synergies, a 3.9% dividend yield, and analyst upgrades, though high debt levels temper enthusiasm. Price action reflects volatility but upward trend tied to oil prices and operational efficiencies.
CVE Overview and Recent Performance
Cenovus Energy (CVE), headquartered in Calgary, is an integrated oil company with upstream operations in oil sands, conventional assets, and offshore, complemented by refining and marketing. It operates through Upstream and Downstream segments, producing bitumen, heavy oil, and refined products like gasoline and diesel. Recent weeks have seen CVE shares rise around 68% year-to-date, driven by robust Q1 2026 performance with record upstream output of 972,100 BOE/d (barrels of oil equivalent per day), up 19% year-over-year. Adjusted funds flow reached $3.4 billion, with EPS of $0.61 beating consensus by 9.91%, despite revenue slightly missing at $9.01 billion. Refinery utilization hit 97%, supporting free funds flow of $2.2 billion. Shareholder returns included $1 billion in dividends and buybacks. Positive sentiment stems from the MEG acquisition's growth projects and cost discipline, though heavy oil differentials pose risks. Shares have shown resilience in volatile energy markets.
PBR Overview and Recent Performance
Petrobras (PBR), or Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., is Brazil's semi-state-owned integrated energy major, dominant in exploration, production, refining, and low-carbon initiatives. It leverages pre-salt offshore fields for high output, with segments in E&P, refining/transport, and gas/low-carbon energies. In recent market activity, PBR has surged over 70% year-to-date and nearly 90% over 12 months, outpacing benchmarks amid elevated Brent prices. Anticipation builds for Q1 2026 earnings, with consensus eyeing EPS growth and strong free cash flow from $100/bbl oil. The company projects $35-42 billion annual operating cash flow through 2030 at controlled capex. A dividend yield near 5% attracts income investors, supported by resilient pre-salt production. Sentiment reflects optimism on shareholder returns and limited Middle East exposure, offset by Brazilian political risks and currency fluctuations. Price momentum has been steady, with recent dips viewed as buy opportunities.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CRGY, CVE, and PBR share energy sector exposure but diverge in models: CRGY's pure U.S. E&P focuses on acquisitions for growth, contrasting CVE's integrated Canadian oil sands/refining balance and PBR's massive offshore scale with state influence. Recent momentum favors all, with YTD returns of 60%, 68%, and 72% respectively, fueled by oil above $100/bbl. Risk profiles vary: CRGY carries high debt (EV $9-10B vs. $4B market cap), while CVE and PBR ($50B+ caps) offer stability but currency/political vulnerabilities. Valuation sensitivity shows CRGY cheapest (forward P/E ~8x, EV/EBITDA 6x, 3.9% yield), CVE at ~15x P/E with 2% yield, and PBR high-yield but volatile. Market sentiment tilts to integrated giants for downside protection, trading growth for scale.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward CVE for its trend consistency, record production growth, and integrated model providing earnings stability amid oil volatility. Relative positioning shows superior scale and catalysts like MEG synergies, with probabilistic edge over CRGY's debt burden and PBR's emerging market risks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CRGY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileCVE’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and PBR’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- CRGY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CVE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- PBR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CRGY’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CVE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PBR’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CRGY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- CVE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PBR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CRGY (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -5.66% price change this week, while CVE (@Integrated Oil) price change was -3.55% , and PBR (@Integrated Oil) price fluctuated -2.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was -3.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.29%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +3.65%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
CRGY is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
CVE is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
PBR is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (-3.52% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
@Integrated Oil (+3.65% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| CRGY | CVE | PBR | |
| Capitalization | 3.36B | 46.2B | 105B |
| EBITDA | 1.26B | 11.5B | 250B |
| Gain YTD | 23.595 | 45.922 | 44.382 |
| P/E Ratio | 25.39 | 14.49 | 5.40 |
| Revenue | 3.81B | 51.9B | 489B |
| Total Cash | 9.78M | 2.58B | 47.6B |
| Total Debt | 5.37B | 13.8B | 372B |
CVE | PBR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 38 Fair valued | 19 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 15 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 58 | 39 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBR's Valuation (19) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVE (38) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to CVE’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's Profit vs Risk Rating (15) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVE (42) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to CVE’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's SMR Rating (39) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVE (58) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to CVE’s over the last 12 months.
CVE's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as PBR (48) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that CVE’s stock grew similarly to PBR’s over the last 12 months.
CVE's P/E Growth Rating (37) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PBR (89) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that CVE’s stock grew somewhat faster than PBR’s over the last 12 months.
| CRGY | CVE | PBR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 69% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 69% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 74% | 8 days ago 67% | 8 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 40% |
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|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| LEO | 6.44 | 0.05 | +0.78% |
| BNY Mellon Strategic Municipals | |||
| MLDR | 48.74 | 0.29 | +0.60% |
| Global X Intermediate-Term Trsy Lddr ETF | |||
| EEMV | 74.34 | 0.21 | +0.28% |
| iShares MSCI Emerg Mkts Min Vol Fctr ETF | |||
| DMA | 7.29 | -0.06 | -0.82% |
| Destra Multi-Alternative Fund | |||
| GDT | 33.53 | -0.96 | -2.80% |
| WisdomTree Efficient TIPS Plus Gold Fund | |||
CRGY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CRGY has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CRGY jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CRGY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRGY | 100% | -3.33% | ||
| CHRD - CRGY | 82% Closely correlated | -3.52% | ||
| MGY - CRGY | 81% Closely correlated | +0.34% | ||
| NOG - CRGY | 80% Closely correlated | +0.36% | ||
| OVV - CRGY | 80% Closely correlated | -3.85% | ||
| PR - CRGY | 79% Closely correlated | -2.50% | ||
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PBR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBR has been loosely correlated with BP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PBR jumps, then BP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBR | 100% | -3.41% | ||
| BP - PBR | 62% Loosely correlated | -3.74% | ||
| SHEL - PBR | 60% Loosely correlated | -2.28% | ||
| SU - PBR | 58% Loosely correlated | -3.61% | ||
| EQNR - PBR | 57% Loosely correlated | -3.22% | ||
| CRGY - PBR | 57% Loosely correlated | -3.33% | ||
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