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BP vs PBR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. Petrobras (PBR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BP delivered strong YTD returns of approximately 35%, outperforming its FTSE 100 benchmark, amid rising oil prices and portfolio optimization efforts.
- PBR surged over 85% YTD, far exceeding the IBOVESPA index, driven by record production and asset acquisitions in Brazil's pre-salt fields.
- Both stocks benefit from elevated oil prices, but PBR offers a higher dividend yield around 6.8%, compared to BP's 4.3%.
- PBR trades at a lower trailing P/E ratio of about 7.2 versus BP's elevated levels due to recent earnings challenges.
- Recent momentum favors PBR with superior relative performance, though BP shows greater stability via global diversification.
- Market sentiment highlights PBR's production growth, while BP faces refinery issues but expands in high-potential regions like Namibia.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines BP p.l.c. and Petrobras (PBR), two integrated energy giants in the oil and gas sector. Both companies navigate volatile commodity markets, geopolitical influences, and the energy transition. Traders seeking momentum plays may eye their recent price surges tied to higher oil prices, while long-term investors could value their dividends and production profiles. This analysis highlights relative performance, business models, and market positioning to inform decisions in the current environment of elevated crude benchmarks and supply dynamics.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP p.l.c., headquartered in London, is a global integrated energy firm engaged in exploration, production, refining, and low-carbon initiatives across Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. In recent market activity, its shares have climbed around 35% year-to-date, outpacing the FTSE 100, with a market cap near $121 billion and a forward dividend yield of 4.3%. Trading near $46, the stock reflects gains from rising oil prices boosting upstream cash flows, despite a negative beta of -0.19 indicating lower volatility.
Sentiment has been shaped by strategic moves like acquiring stakes in Namibia's offshore blocks alongside peers, amid higher Brent crude levels. Challenges include a lockout at the Whiting refinery, impacting refining margins, and a prior share buyback pause to fortify the balance sheet. Recent weeks saw analyst upgrades, such as Wells Fargo raising its price target to $54, underscoring undervaluation potential as BP optimizes its portfolio for oil and gas focus.
PBR Overview and Recent Performance
Petrobras (PBR), Brazil's state-controlled oil major based in Rio de Janeiro, operates in Exploration and Production, Refining, Transportation & Marketing, and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. Its ADR trades around $22, with a market cap of about $142 billion and a forward dividend yield of 6.8% (ex-date April 24, 2026). Year-to-date gains exceed 85%, dwarfing the IBOVESPA, fueled by record output nearing 3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe; barrels of oil equivalent).
Performance drivers include a $450 million deal reclaiming full control of Campos Basin assets like Tartaruga Verde and Espadarte, plus new pre-salt discoveries enhancing long-term reserves (over 11 billion boe). Higher exports and production growth offset softer refining, with a low trailing P/E of 7.2 signaling value. A beta of -0.07 highlights resilience, though Brazilian political influences on pricing remain a watchpoint amid robust operational momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BP and PBR share integrated models but diverge in scope: BP's global diversification spans mature basins and renewables, reducing single-country risk, while PBR dominates Brazil's high-margin pre-salt with ~80% oil output. Growth drivers favor PBR's production ramps and exports versus BP's portfolio sales like German refineries.
Recent momentum tilts to PBR (3-month +84% vs. BP's +35%), but BP offers stability amid refinery hiccups. Risks include PBR's political exposure versus BP's shareholder activism on climate. Both leverage oil sentiment, yet PBR's superior yield and valuation contrast BP's broader sector exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward PBR based on stronger trend consistency, explosive YTD momentum, production catalysts, and attractive relative positioning including lower P/E and higher yield. Factors like pre-salt dominance and asset consolidations signal higher probability of outperformance in sustained oil strength, though BP remains viable for stability seekers.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a Hold and PBR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePBR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PBR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PBR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PBR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -4.35% price change this week, while PBR (@Integrated Oil) price change was -1.90% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +0.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.22%, and the average quarterly price growth was +22.56%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
PBR is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+0.08% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| BP | PBR | BP / PBR | |
| Capitalization | 103B | 104B | 99% |
| EBITDA | 35B | 250B | 14% |
| Gain YTD | 17.353 | 49.297 | 35% |
| P/E Ratio | 32.18 | 5.40 | 596% |
| Revenue | 195B | 489B | 40% |
| Total Cash | 35.8B | 47.6B | 75% |
| Total Debt | 74.2B | 372B | 20% |
BP | PBR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 19 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 39 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBR's Valuation (19) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (25). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (28). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's SMR Rating (39) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BP (84). This means that PBR’s stock grew somewhat faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (59). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's P/E Growth Rating (89) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (99). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | PBR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 59% | 12 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 51% | 6 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 40% |
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PBR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBR has been loosely correlated with BP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PBR jumps, then BP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBR | 100% | +1.55% | ||
| BP - PBR | 62% Loosely correlated | +1.74% | ||
| SHEL - PBR | 60% Loosely correlated | +1.08% | ||
| SU - PBR | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.63% | ||
| EQNR - PBR | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.51% | ||
| CRGY - PBR | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.77% | ||
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