Advertisement
ESS or MAC or SPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Essex Property Trust (ESS) vs. Macerich (MAC) vs. Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Comparison
1) Key Takeaways
- ESS is a West Coast apartment real estate investment trust (REIT) with an investment-grade balance sheet and stable, supply-constrained rent growth, but slower, steadier momentum.
- MAC is a mall REIT executing a high-leverage turnaround, delivering the strongest trailing one-year share gains but carrying the most balance-sheet risk.
- SPG is the largest mall REIT, combining scale, investment-grade credit, and record leasing momentum with a growing dividend.
- All three pay dividends and are sensitive to interest rates, but they differ sharply in leverage, growth profile, and market positioning.
- Relative performance has favored the retail turnaround names, while ESS offers more defensive, housing-driven cash flow.
2) Introduction
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) expose investors to property cash flow, dividends, and interest-rate sensitivity, yet they are far from homogeneous. This stock comparison examines three publicly traded REITs that sit on opposite ends of the real estate spectrum: ESS, a West Coast apartment owner; and MAC and SPG, two shopping-center operators. Traders seeking momentum, income investors focused on dividends, and long-term investors weighing balance-sheet strength against growth potential may all find the contrast instructive. The comparison highlights how business models, leverage, and recent operating momentum shape relative performance in the current market environment.
3) ESS Overview and Recent Performance
Essex Property Trust is a residential REIT that owns and operates apartment communities concentrated in Southern California, Northern California, and the Seattle metro area. Its portfolio benefits from high-barrier markets where new housing supply remains low, supporting resilient occupancy and rent growth. In recent quarters, ESS has reported stable funds from operations (FFO), a key REIT earnings measure, alongside modest same-property net operating income (NOI) growth of roughly 2.6% year over year and financial occupancy near 96%. Northern California has led regional performance. The company raised its full-year 2026 core FFO guidance, repurchased shares, and maintained a strong liquidity position with net debt to adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) in the mid-5x range. Sentiment has been supported by limited supply and a defensive, income-oriented profile, though price behavior has been more range-bound than the retail names.
4) MAC Overview and Recent Performance
The Macerich Company is a retail REIT that owns, operates, and redevelops regional shopping centers, primarily Class A malls in affluent trade areas. Its "Path Forward" plan centers on leasing, portfolio simplification, and debt reduction. Recent market activity has favored MAC: shares rose more than 50% on a trailing 12-month basis, reflecting renewed investor confidence in high-quality malls. Operating momentum has improved, with go-forward portfolio NOI up about 3.8% year over year, leased occupancy near 94% (about 95.5% in the go-forward portfolio), and a signed-not-open leasing pipeline of roughly $124 million. However, the turnaround carries elevated risk: net debt to adjusted EBITDA remains around 7.3x, free cash flow has been negative due to redevelopment spending, and the dividend is modest. The strong rally has also led some analysts to view the stock as closer to fairly valued after its run.
5) SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group is the largest mall REIT in the United States, owning premier malls, Premium Outlets, and mixed-use destinations across North America, Europe, and Asia. Its scale and investment-grade credit ratings (A from S&P and A3 from Moody's) distinguish it from smaller peers. In recent quarters, SPG reported record leasing activity, domestic property NOI growth of roughly 6.7%, occupancy near 96%, and rising retailer sales per square foot. The company raised its full-year Real Estate FFO guidance and increased its quarterly dividend, while maintaining ample liquidity and net debt to EBITDA near 5.0x. These results have reinforced its positioning as the quality leader in retail real estate, though the shares have shown more measured momentum than MAC, reflecting a larger, more diversified base and a higher valuation.
6) Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a data-driven edge, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a selection of algorithmic trading bots from a library of hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers. Each bot operates with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of symbols, meaning no two are alike. Only those judged most suitable for current market conditions earn a place in this rotating section, which highlights bots with notable recent results, win rates, and trade volumes. Whether your focus is momentum, trend-following, or volatility, the page offers a practical way to evaluate automation across names like ESS, MAC, and SPG. Explore the Trending AI Robots section to review the current leaders.
7) Head-to-Head Comparison
The three companies diverge most clearly on business model and risk. ESS derives cash flow from apartments—needs-based housing with defensive demand and low supply growth—making it the most stable but slowest-growing of the trio. SPG combines retail exposure with diversification, investment-grade credit, and a growth pipeline, offering a balance of income and upside. MAC is the most leveraged and volatile, but also offers the largest potential rerating if its deleveraging and leasing plan continues to execute. On valuation, MAC trades at a lower absolute share price and FFO multiple than SPG, but that discount reflects materially higher leverage and negative free cash flow. All three remain sensitive to interest rates, consumer spending, and refinancing conditions, though ESS carries the least retail and leverage exposure.
8) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI framework would likely favor SPG for its combination of durable momentum, investment-grade credit, record leasing, and shareholder returns. MAC offers the strongest recent relative performance and the most upside optionality, but its elevated leverage and negative free cash flow introduce greater variability that may reduce its attractiveness in a risk-adjusted ranking. ESS presents the most stable fundamentals, though its slower growth profile may rank lower on pure momentum. The outcome would depend on the specific bot's strategy and timeframe, with momentum-oriented systems potentially favoring MAC while stability-weighted models lean toward SPG.
9) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
ESS's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ESS turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where ESS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ESS as a result. In 46 of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
ESS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ESS advanced for three days, in 166 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ESS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
ESS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ESS entered a downward trend on September 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ESS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.410) is normal, around the industry mean (2.134). P/E Ratio (43.995) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.256). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (7.018) is also within normal values, averaging (6.209). Dividend Yield (0.037) settles around the average of (1.976) among similar stocks. ESS's P/S Ratio (9.066) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.317).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ESS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 96, placing this stock better than average.
MAC in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
MAC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 34 of 47 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MAC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MAC as a result. In 64 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MAC just turned positive on September 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where MAC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +1.49% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MAC advanced for three days, in 219 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MAC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
MAC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MAC entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MAC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.402) is normal, around the industry mean (2.646). MAC has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-36.288) as compared to the industry average of (34.201). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.060) is also within normal values, averaging (12.808). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (305.774) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.807) is also within normal values, averaging (6.739).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
SPG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPG turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SPG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPG as a result. In 67 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
SPG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPG advanced for three days, in 191 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
SPG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SPG entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SPG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SPG's P/B Ratio (15.613) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.646). P/E Ratio (14.964) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.201). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.576) is also within normal values, averaging (12.808). Dividend Yield (0.042) settles around the average of (305.774) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.515) is also within normal values, averaging (6.739).
ESS | MAC | SPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 26 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 55 Fair valued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 93 | 51 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 92 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 45 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 29 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MAC's Valuation (55) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ESS (93) and is somewhat better than the same rating for SPG (100). This means that MAC's stock grew somewhat faster than ESS’s and somewhat faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as MAC (51) and is significantly better than the same rating for ESS (93). This means that SPG's stock grew similarly to MAC’s and significantly faster than ESS’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (12) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ESS (77) and is significantly better than the same rating for MAC (92). This means that SPG's stock grew somewhat faster than ESS’s and significantly faster than MAC’s over the last 12 months.
MAC's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as SPG (49) and is in the same range as ESS (49). This means that MAC's stock grew similarly to SPG’s and similarly to ESS’s over the last 12 months.
ESS's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as MAC (29) and is significantly better than the same rating for SPG (87). This means that ESS's stock grew similarly to MAC’s and significantly faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
| ESS | MAC | SPG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 5 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 12 days ago 70% | 8 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 45% | 5 days ago 70% | 10 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 29% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ESS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MAC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and SPG’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- ESS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MAC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SPG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ESS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MAC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and SPG’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ESS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MAC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SPG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ESS (@Media Conglomerates) experienced а +4.74% price change this week, while MAC (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was +3.72% , and SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price fluctuated +4.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Media Conglomerates industry was +1.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.67%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was +1.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
ESS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
MAC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
SPG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Media Conglomerates (+1.25% weekly)Companies that operate in these three (or more) areas: broadcasting, cable TV, publishing and movies/entertainment. The companies usually have a large share in these markets. Walt Disney Co . is an example.
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (+1.04% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
Advertisement
MAC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MAC has been closely correlated with CUZ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MAC jumps, then CUZ could also see price increases.
SPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPG has been closely correlated with CUZ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPG jumps, then CUZ could also see price increases.