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FNV or KGC or OR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Franco-Nevada (FNV) vs. Kinross Gold (KGC) vs. OR Royalties (OR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FNV and OR, as royalty/streaming companies, offer lower operational risk with diversified precious metals exposure, while KGC provides higher leverage to gold prices as an operating miner.
- Recent market activity shows KGC with strong YTD gains around 12%, outpacing FNV (11-12%) and OR (7%), driven by robust Q1 results and free cash flow.
- All three have benefited from elevated gold prices, but FNV and OR trade at premium valuations (P/E above 28) compared to KGC's 13.
- FNV boasts the largest market cap (~$45B) and a consistent dividend increase for 19 years, appealing to stability-focused investors.
- Recent pullbacks in gold prices have pressured short-term momentum across the group, with 1-month declines of 10-12% for FNV and similar for peers.
- Sector tailwinds from gold's safe-haven status persist, supporting relative outperformance versus broader markets.
Introduction
This comparison examines FNV (Franco-Nevada Corporation), KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation), and OR (OR Royalties Inc.), three prominent players in the gold sector. Franco-Nevada and OR Royalties focus on royalty and streaming models, providing exposure to gold production without operational risks, while Kinross operates mines globally. Investors seeking gold as an inflation hedge or portfolio diversifier, as well as traders eyeing precious metals momentum, will find value in analyzing their business models, recent performance amid fluctuating gold prices, and relative positioning in today's market environment marked by geopolitical tensions and rate uncertainty. This stock comparison highlights key differences in risk, returns, and growth drivers.
FNV Overview and Recent Performance
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) is a leading precious metals royalty and streaming company, managing a diversified portfolio of over 400 assets across gold, silver, platinum, and energy without direct mining operations. This model delivers high margins (around 90% cash margins) tied to production from partner mines. In recent market activity, FNV shares have shown resilience with YTD gains of approximately 12%, though experiencing a 10-12% pullback over the past month amid gold price consolidation. Sentiment remains supported by record 2025 results, including $1.8B revenue (up 64% YoY) and strong Q4 earnings beat, plus financings like A$220M for Bullabulling and $250M for i-80 Gold. Elevated gold prices and low debt enhance appeal, though high valuations cap upside in choppy conditions.
KGC Overview and Recent Performance
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) is a global gold producer operating mines in the Americas and West Africa, including Tasiast, Paracatu, and Fort Knox, with annual output around 2 million gold equivalent ounces (GEO). Recent performance has been robust, with shares posting YTD returns near 12% and a 100%+ one-year surge, fueled by operational efficiencies and gold's rally. Q1 2026 results highlighted record free cash flow of $837.5M and net income of $843M, despite minor EPS miss, boosting sentiment amid higher realized gold prices. Influences include expansions and dividend hikes, though as an operator, KGC faces greater cost and execution risks versus royalty peers. Recent weeks reflect volatility tied to gold fluctuations but strong cash generation supports positioning.
OR Overview and Recent Performance
OR Royalties Inc. (OR), formerly Osisko Gold Royalties, acquires and manages precious metal royalties and streams, anchored by a 3-5% NSR (net smelter return) on the Canadian Malartic mine, with over 195 interests focused on Tier-1 jurisdictions. Recent activity shows YTD gains around 7%, with Q1 2026 revenue hitting a record $102.8M (up 87% YoY) and EPS of $0.39, driven by higher gold production and prices. Positive portfolio updates at Island Gold and others bolster outlook, alongside $12.9M in share buybacks. Shares have mirrored sector pullbacks but benefit from 72% profit margins and growth in GEO deliveries, positioning OR as a balanced gold exposure play amid market volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FNV, KGC, and OR all thrive on gold exposure but differ markedly in business models: FNV and OR's royalty/streaming approaches yield high margins (60-90%) and minimal capex/debt risks (FNV nearly debt-free), contrasting KGC's operating model with higher EBITDA ($5.15B) but execution vulnerabilities like cost overruns. Growth drivers include FNV/OR's portfolio expansions (e.g., new financings, buybacks) versus KGC's mine optimizations and 2M+ GEO output. Recent momentum favors KGC's 100%+ annual gains, though all saw 10%+ monthly dips on gold softening. Risk profiles: royalties lower beta (FNV 0.89), miners higher volatility. Valuations show KGC cheapest (P/E 13, dividend 0.5%) versus FNV (P/E 40, 0.8% yield) and OR (P/E 28). Sector ties amplify gold sensitivity, with royalties less exposed to AISC (all-in sustaining costs) swings, trading off leverage for stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward KGC based on superior trend consistency from Q1 cash flow records, undervaluation relative to peers, and stronger YTD momentum amid gold catalysts. While FNV and OR offer stability and diversification, KGC's operational leverage and lower P/E suggest higher probability of near-term outperformance if gold holds above $2,300/oz, though with elevated volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FNV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKGC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and OR’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- FNV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KGC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- OR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FNV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KGC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and OR’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FNV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KGC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- OR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FNV (@Precious Metals) experienced а -11.71% price change this week, while KGC (@Precious Metals) price change was -13.08% , and OR (@Precious Metals) price fluctuated -9.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -10.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -21.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
FNV is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
KGC is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-10.47% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| FNV | KGC | OR | |
| Capitalization | 40.1B | 29.7B | 6.14B |
| EBITDA | 2.06B | 5.15B | 339M |
| Gain YTD | 0.683 | -11.487 | -7.343 |
| P/E Ratio | 29.28 | 10.58 | 24.43 |
| Revenue | 2.11B | 7.96B | 325M |
| Total Cash | 434M | 2.19B | 94.9M |
| Total Debt | 82.6M | 738M | 4.64M |
FNV | KGC | OR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 56 | 58 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 29 Undervalued | 28 Undervalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 39 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 47 | 27 | 47 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 63 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 82 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KGC's Valuation (28) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (29) in the Precious Metals industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for OR (74) in the null industry. This means that KGC's stock grew similarly to FNV’s and somewhat faster than OR’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's Profit vs Risk Rating (39) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as OR (42) in the null industry, and is in the same range as FNV (50) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that KGC's stock grew similarly to OR’s and similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's SMR Rating (27) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as OR (47) in the null industry, and is in the same range as FNV (47) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that KGC's stock grew similarly to OR’s and similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
FNV's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (63) in the Precious Metals industry, and is in the same range as OR (64) in the null industry. This means that FNV's stock grew similarly to KGC’s and similarly to OR’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's P/E Growth Rating (82) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (90) in the Precious Metals industry, and is in the same range as OR (99) in the null industry. This means that KGC's stock grew similarly to FNV’s and similarly to OR’s over the last 12 months.
| FNV | KGC | OR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 63% | 14 days ago 80% | 14 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 66% |
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FNV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FNV has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FNV jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.
KGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KGC has been closely correlated with WPM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KGC jumps, then WPM could also see price increases.
OR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OR has been closely correlated with WPM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OR jumps, then WPM could also see price increases.