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MGY or MTDR or OXY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) vs. Matador Resources (MTDR) vs. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MGY, MTDR, and OXY are all independent oil and gas exploration and production companies with exposure to U.S. shale basins and sensitivity to crude oil prices.
- Recent market activity shows OXY delivering stronger year-to-date returns compared to peers amid sector volatility driven by geopolitical factors.
- MTDR has highlighted production growth initiatives and upcoming second-quarter results, while maintaining a dividend policy.
- MGY has implemented a dividend increase and focuses on capital efficiency in its South Texas operations.
- Valuation and momentum differences reflect varying scales, with OXY operating as a larger integrated player alongside its upstream focus.
- Sector sentiment remains tied to oil price stability, with upcoming earnings releases for all three companies providing near-term catalysts.
Introduction
This comparison examines MGY, MTDR, and OXY, three energy sector stocks in the upstream oil and gas space. Investors and traders interested in relative performance within the energy complex, dividend characteristics, and positioning amid fluctuating commodity prices may find the analysis relevant. The review draws on observable market data and company disclosures to highlight distinctions in scale, operational focus, and recent activity without projecting future outcomes.
MGY Overview and Recent Performance
MGY (Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation) is an independent exploration and production company primarily active in the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in South Texas. In recent weeks, the stock has traded in a range reflecting broader energy sector movements influenced by crude oil price fluctuations. The company reported solid first-quarter results earlier in the year and subsequently raised its quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.18 per share. Market sentiment has been shaped by capital efficiency metrics and production growth updates, with the share price showing resilience relative to some sector peers amid ongoing commodity volatility.
MTDR Overview and Recent Performance
MTDR (Matador Resources Company) operates as an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production firm with significant assets in the Permian Basin, including recent strategic moves in the Delaware Basin. Recent market activity includes the declaration of a quarterly dividend of $0.375 per share and preparations for second-quarter 2026 earnings scheduled for early August. The company has emphasized production guidance and adjusted free cash flow projections, with share price movements aligning with sector trends tied to energy prices and operational announcements in recent weeks.
OXY Overview and Recent Performance
OXY (Occidental Petroleum Corporation) is a larger independent exploration and production company with operations spanning multiple U.S. basins and international exposure. In recent market activity, the stock has posted notable year-to-date gains exceeding 36%, supported by realized pricing benefits during periods of elevated crude benchmarks. Developments include leadership transitions and upcoming second-quarter earnings, with price behavior reflecting both commodity price dynamics and company-specific catalysts over recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MGY and MTDR represent smaller-scale independent producers focused on specific shale plays, offering higher operational leverage to regional drilling results compared to the broader basin and international footprint of OXY. Growth drivers differ, with MTDR highlighting acquisition-driven expansion and MGY emphasizing capital discipline, while OXY benefits from scale and diversified realized pricing. Recent momentum has favored OXY on a year-to-date basis, though all three exhibit sensitivity to oil price swings. Risk factors include commodity volatility and execution on drilling programs, with valuation metrics reflecting differences in market capitalization and balance sheet profiles. Sector exposure remains concentrated in upstream energy, where sentiment tracks benchmark crude movements and earnings visibility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative year-to-date positioning, and earnings visibility, Tickeron’s AI currently assigns a probabilistic edge to OXY among the three. Its larger scale and demonstrated resilience in recent market activity provide a foundation for more stable momentum signals compared to the smaller peers. This assessment remains conditional on continued commodity price dynamics and upcoming earnings outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MGY’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMTDR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and OXY’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- MGY’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MTDR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- OXY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MGY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTDR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and OXY’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MGY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MTDR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- OXY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MGY (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -2.45% price change this week, while MTDR (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was -1.66% , and OXY (@Oil & Gas Production) price fluctuated -2.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was -1.94%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.24%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
MGY is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
MTDR is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
OXY is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (-1.94% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| MGY | MTDR | OXY | |
| Capitalization | 5.94B | 6.09B | 55.9B |
| EBITDA | 875M | 2.09B | 11B |
| Gain YTD | 15.949 | 17.270 | 37.245 |
| P/E Ratio | 10.95 | 8.42 | 16.49 |
| Revenue | 1.32B | 3.59B | 21.1B |
| Total Cash | 124M | 30.5M | N/A |
| Total Debt | 413M | 3.57B | 16.6B |
MGY | MTDR | OXY | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 59 | 76 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 34 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 71 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 76 | 60 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 60 | 31 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 29 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTDR's Valuation (34) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MGY (43) and is in the same range as OXY (63). This means that MTDR's stock grew similarly to MGY’s and similarly to OXY’s over the last 12 months.
MGY's Profit vs Risk Rating (47) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as OXY (59) and is in the same range as MTDR (71). This means that MGY's stock grew similarly to OXY’s and similarly to MTDR’s over the last 12 months.
MGY's SMR Rating (54) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as OXY (60) and is in the same range as MTDR (76). This means that MGY's stock grew similarly to OXY’s and similarly to MTDR’s over the last 12 months.
OXY's Price Growth Rating (31) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MGY (60) and is in the same range as MTDR (60). This means that OXY's stock grew similarly to MGY’s and similarly to MTDR’s over the last 12 months.
MTDR's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MGY (63) and is somewhat better than the same rating for OXY (87). This means that MTDR's stock grew somewhat faster than MGY’s and somewhat faster than OXY’s over the last 12 months.
| MGY | MTDR | OXY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 73% | 18 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 66% | 5 days ago 72% | 5 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 78% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 71% |
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MGY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MGY has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MGY jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MGY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGY | 100% | +1.33% | ||
| CHRD - MGY | 85% Closely correlated | -0.87% | ||
| OVV - MGY | 81% Closely correlated | -0.84% | ||
| MTDR - MGY | 81% Closely correlated | +0.82% | ||
| DVN - MGY | 81% Closely correlated | -0.30% | ||
| PR - MGY | 81% Closely correlated | -0.64% | ||
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MTDR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTDR has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTDR jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTDR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTDR | 100% | +0.82% | ||
| CHRD - MTDR | 85% Closely correlated | -0.87% | ||
| OVV - MTDR | 82% Closely correlated | -0.84% | ||
| PR - MTDR | 82% Closely correlated | -0.64% | ||
| MGY - MTDR | 81% Closely correlated | +1.33% | ||
| DVN - MTDR | 81% Closely correlated | -0.30% | ||
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OXY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OXY has been closely correlated with DVN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OXY jumps, then DVN could also see price increases.