D-Wave Quantum is a Nasdaq-listed quantum computing company, and unlike an exchange-traded fund it is covered by a sizeable group of sell-side analysts. The $36 figure used here is a calculation, not an official published consensus: I averaged the current, individually attributable targets of firms including Jefferies ($45), Rosenblatt ($43), B. Riley Securities ($40), Craig-Hallum ($40), Wedbush ($40), Roth Capital ($40), BMO Capital Markets ($35), Stifel ($35), Benchmark ($30), Mizuho ($29), and Northland Securities ($22). That produces a mean of roughly $36, with a wide range from $22 to $45.
The dispersion matters. Bullish firms such as Jefferies and Rosenblatt emphasize D-Wave's commercial traction, record backlog, and its position as the only company selling both quantum annealing and gate-model systems. More cautious voices, including Northland's Market Perform (Hold) with a $22 target, point to execution risk and a valuation that is difficult to justify on current revenue. Notably, several targets were reset lower during the first half of 2026, then partially rebuilt in June and August as government funding and commercial announcements improved sentiment.
QBTS traded near $11.78 in mid-October 2026, near the bottom of its 52-week range of roughly $11.35 to $45.13. From that level, a move to $36 would require about 206% appreciation — by any measure a very large move, roughly equivalent to a tripling of the stock.
The path is shaped by two competing forces. On one side, D-Wave's commercial indicators have strengthened: first-half 2026 bookings rose roughly 1,120% year over year to about $35.5 million, and remaining performance obligations reached approximately $40.7 million, up 668%. On the other side, reported revenue has lagged — second-quarter 2026 revenue of about $3.1 million missed expectations — reflecting how lumpy large system deliveries can obscure underlying progress. The stock's 2.17 beta underscores how much it trades on sentiment and sector momentum rather than current earnings, which remain deeply negative.
Several verified factors underpin the bullish case. D-Wave finalized a definitive agreement for up to $100 million in U.S. CHIPS Act funding for research and development. Its $550 million acquisition of Quantum Circuits added dual-rail gate-model technology, which management argues broadens its addressable market well beyond annealing. Commercial signals include a roughly $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University and a $10 million agreement with a Fortune 100 company. Analysts such as BMO's Harsh Kumar and Benchmark's Gary Mobley cite record backlog and a fast-growing pipeline as reasons for their Buy ratings, while firms like Wedbush and Craig-Hallum highlight a comparatively strong balance sheet relative to cash burn.
The obstacles are equally concrete. D-Wave trades at well over 100 times forward sales, and it remains deeply unprofitable, with net losses of about $355 million in 2025 and continued cash burn in 2026. Benchmark's own bullish model still assumes an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss of more than $130 million in 2026. That level of spending raises the prospect of future share issuance, and shares outstanding have already grown sharply. A second-quarter earnings miss and the abrupt departure of the company's CFO added leadership and credibility concerns, while a securities class action alleging overstated prospects introduces legal overhang. The sector-wide selloff following rival IonQ's large equity raise also shows how quickly dilution fears can spill across quantum names.
Technically, QBTS sits in a broad downtrend after falling from its 52-week high near $45. The 50-day moving average near $17 and the 200-day moving average near $20 both sit well above the current price, meaning a sustained rally toward $36 would first have to reclaim those zones. The 52-week low near $11.35 is the most immediate support level, while the psychological $20 and prior resistance areas in the mid-$20s represent intermediate hurdles before any test of the mid-$30s targets.
Most analyst price targets reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though individual firms vary and D-Wave's high volatility makes the timing highly uncertain. The next earnings report, expected around November 5, 2026, is a key test of whether the surging backlog is converting into recognized revenue. Investors should also watch for guidance updates, additional system sales, progress on the gate-model roadmap, analyst target revisions, any new funding or dilution announcements, CHIPS Act disbursements, and developments in the securities litigation. Macroeconomic signals — particularly inflation data and interest-rate expectations — also move high-beta, cash-burning quantum names disproportionately.
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The $36 target is not a guarantee but a reflection of an unusually bullish analyst community: a calculated mean of current targets spanning roughly $22 to $45, well above the recent price near $11.78. Reaching it would require a very large move of about 206%, supported in principle by record bookings, government funding, and a differentiated dual-platform strategy, but constrained by a triple-digit forward sales multiple, persistent losses, dilution risk, leadership turnover, and litigation. The wide spread between the $22 and $45 targets signals real disagreement about whether commercial conversion can keep pace with the technology story. The decisive near-term catalysts are the upcoming earnings report and any evidence that backlog is translating into reported revenue.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, QBTS has been closely correlated with RGTI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if QBTS jumps, then RGTI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To QBTS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBTS | 100% | -0.42% | ||
| RGTI - QBTS | 93% Closely correlated | -0.09% | ||
| QUBT - QBTS | 86% Closely correlated | +1.25% | ||
| IONQ - QBTS | 85% Closely correlated | +1.56% | ||
| OSS - QBTS | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.33% | ||
| DPRO - QBTS | 48% Loosely correlated | +0.56% | ||
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| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To QBTS | 1D Price Change % |
|---|---|---|
| QBTS | 100% | -0.42% |
| QBTS (4 stocks) | 75% Closely correlated | +1.92% |
| Computer Processing Hardware (39 stocks) | 47% Loosely correlated | +0.68% |