A bullish signal on Toll Brothers ahead of earnings
Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) is set to report earnings on May 22 and the stock just got a bullish signal from the Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Engine on May 17. The signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month and it showed a confidence level of 69%. Past predictions on Toll Brothers have been successful 72% of the time.
The company has really strong fundamentals heading into the earnings report. The company has seen earnings grow at an average annual rate of 36% over the last three years. Earnings increased by 19% in the most recent quarterly report. Revenue has increased by an average rate of 19% annually over the last three years and it increased by 16% in the most recent quarter.
The company shows a return on equity of 15.4% and a profit margin of 13.1%
The weekly chart shows another possible long-term bullish signal and that is the fact that the 13-week moving average just crossed bullishly above the 52-week moving average. The last time we saw a bullish cross of these moving averages was in November 2016, right before the stock rallied sharply for the next year.
One final observation about Toll Brothers that could help move the stock higher and that is the sentiment toward the stock. Only five out of 19 analysts rank the stock as a buy. This means there is a far greater chance of upgrades in the future than downgrades. This could help push the stock higher in the coming months.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on March 24, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 90 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TOL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 14 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on March 17, 2025. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TOL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on March 24, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.900) is normal, around the industry mean (7.196). P/E Ratio (9.918) is within average values for comparable stocks, (103.177). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.006) is also within normal values, averaging (1.437). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.007) as compared to the industry average of (0.046). P/S Ratio (1.380) is also within normal values, averaging (88.859).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TOL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a designer of single family homes
Industry Homebuilding