Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
published in Blogs
Dec 29, 2022

Airline stocks drop, on US requirement of negative COVID test for travelers from China

U.S. airline stocks plunged on Wednesday, following health officials’ indication that travelers from China will require a negative Covid test before entering the U.S.

The testing directive will include travelers coming directly from China as well as those who visited the nation ten days before their departure to the U.S. Health officials will ask for either a negative antigen or PCR test. The requirement is set to take effect on January 5.

China has relaxed  nearly all of its Zero-Covid policy-related restrictions over the past week, including quarantine requirements for foreign travelers. However, the spread of new infections continue to be a concern. Earlier this week, China's top health authority estimated that infections may be spreading at a rate of 1 to 2 million people per day.

Related Ticker: DAL

DAL's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DAL turned positive on May 16, 2023. Looking at past instances where DAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 17, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DAL as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

DAL moved above its 50-day moving average on May 17, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for DAL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 18, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DAL advanced for three days, in of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 222 cases where DAL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The 50-day moving average for DAL moved below the 200-day moving average on May 16, 2023. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

DAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 17, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. DAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.685) is normal, around the industry mean (72.535). P/E Ratio (12.077) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.432). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.270) is also within normal values, averaging (0.447). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.041) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.426) is also within normal values, averaging (0.965).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV), United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL), American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL), JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ:JBLU).

Industry description

Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Airlines Industry is 6.11B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 246.81K to 23.07B. DAL holds the highest valuation in this group at 23.07B. The lowest valued company is GLUX at 246.81K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 10%. ELALF experienced the highest price growth at 18%, while CHKIF experienced the biggest fall at -11%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was -56%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -67% and the average quarterly volume growth was -2%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 58
P/E Growth Rating: 58
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 70
Profit Risk Rating: 92
Seasonality Score: 14 (-100 ... +100)
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