GET DAILY SIGNALSAlcoa (AA, $20.83) shares get bumped up to outperform by Credit Suisse, on restructuring plans and expected profit boost
Shares of Alcoa climbed around +6% Wednesday, following a rating upgrade by Credit Suisse.
Analysts at Credit Suisse raised their rating on the aluminum products and wrap maker’s stock to outperform from neutral. They also hiked their price target on the shares to $27 from $26.
Credit Suisse analyst Curt Woodworth indicated that he expects alumina prices to bounce back on "significant" capacity cuts in China, the ending of inventory destocking, and the reported shutdown of the Alpart plant by Chinese Jiuquan Iron & Steel.
Woodworth also believes that raw material inputs for alumina, like caustic soda, energy, and calcined coke are declining in price and therefore boosting profit margin for Alcoa.
Woodworth also mentioned that Alcoa's restructuring efforts should result in significant tailwinds to its mid-cycle free cash flow starting early 2020. On Monday, Alcoa announced its restructuring plan that will eliminate at least one of its units, consolidate sales and lower costs, and downsize its executive team to seven department heads from 12 that report to the CEO. Woodworth predicts that Alcoa’s restructuring will lead to potential savings of $60-80 million, and he expects the company to quantify the impact this quarter.
Alcoa shares appear "significantly undervalued on most metrics" , Woodworth noted.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
AA in -2.54% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on October 30, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where AA declined for three days, in 244 of 300 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AA as a result. In 78 of 99 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Aroon Indicator for AA entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 27 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 52 of 60 cases where AA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AA just turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where AA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +4.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AA advanced for three days, in 233 of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
AA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AA's P/B Ratio (1.403) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.077). P/E Ratio (8.097) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.942). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.100) is also within normal values, averaging (0.345). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (0.849).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a miner of bauxite and aluminum
Industry Aluminum
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