Alcoa (AA, $20.83) shares get bumped up to outperform by Credit Suisse, on restructuring plans and expected profit boost
Shares of Alcoa climbed around +6% Wednesday, following a rating upgrade by Credit Suisse.
Analysts at Credit Suisse raised their rating on the aluminum products and wrap maker’s stock to outperform from neutral. They also hiked their price target on the shares to $27 from $26.
Credit Suisse analyst Curt Woodworth indicated that he expects alumina prices to bounce back on "significant" capacity cuts in China, the ending of inventory destocking, and the reported shutdown of the Alpart plant by Chinese Jiuquan Iron & Steel.
Woodworth also believes that raw material inputs for alumina, like caustic soda, energy, and calcined coke are declining in price and therefore boosting profit margin for Alcoa.
Woodworth also mentioned that Alcoa's restructuring efforts should result in significant tailwinds to its mid-cycle free cash flow starting early 2020. On Monday, Alcoa announced its restructuring plan that will eliminate at least one of its units, consolidate sales and lower costs, and downsize its executive team to seven department heads from 12 that report to the CEO. Woodworth predicts that Alcoa’s restructuring will lead to potential savings of $60-80 million, and he expects the company to quantify the impact this quarter.
Alcoa shares appear "significantly undervalued on most metrics" , Woodworth noted.
AA sees its Stochastic Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
On June 25, 2025, the Stochastic Oscillator for AA moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In of the 49 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 30, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AA as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AA just turned positive on June 26, 2025. Looking at past instances where AA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AA moved above its 50-day moving average on June 03, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AA advanced for three days, in of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 244 cases where AA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 26, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.314) is normal, around the industry mean (1.997). P/E Ratio (7.890) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.316). AA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.014) as compared to the industry average of (0.046). P/S Ratio (0.545) is also within normal values, averaging (0.816).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a miner of bauxite and aluminum
Industry Aluminum
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