Alcoa (AA, $46.98) shares get rating upgrade at Jefferies
Alcoa shares got a rating boost from a Jefferies analyst.
Analyst Christopher LaFemina raised her rating on the aluminum producer to buy from hold. LaFemina also hiked his price target to $60 from $52.
LaFemina mentioned that Alcoa is a relative winner because the outlook for aluminum has become more optimistic with the global initiatives for decarbonization gathering steam.
"While the near-term outlook for aluminum is risky as China's economy slows, the longer-term story has become more positive on structural factors," the analyst noted.
"Aluminum is an important metal for decarbonization and will likely continue to take share from steel given its lightness (about one-third the weight of steel) and the fact that it is easily recyclable."
According to LaFemina, China recently becoming a net importer of aluminum as its production growth slows is a critically important structural change to the aluminum markets.
The analyst said that Alcoa is well-positioned to benefit from the improving supply/demand outlook for aluminum.
AA's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for AA entered a downward trend on February 24, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 146 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 146 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AA as a result. In of 99 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AA turned negative on March 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
AA moved below its 50-day moving average on March 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AA advanced for three days, in of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.573) is normal, around the industry mean (3.334). P/E Ratio (13.495) is within average values for comparable stocks, (31.622). AA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.007) as compared to the industry average of (0.022). P/S Ratio (1.213) is also within normal values, averaging (1.324).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a miner of bauxite and aluminum
Industry Aluminum
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