Alcoa posted its fourth quarter results that surpassed analysts’ expectations.
The aluminum producer’s fourth-quarter loss widened to -$2.11 a share, compared with a loss of -2 cents a share in the year-ago period.
Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, came in at $2.50 a share, compared with 26 cents a share in the year-ago period. Analysts polled by FactSet expected $1.93 a share.
Revenue rose to $3.34 billion from $2.39 billion in the year-ago quarter. The figure is higher than $3.29 billion expected by the analysts.
Alcoa projects adjusted earnings for the first quarter similar to the fourth quarter based on current pricing, while analysts predicted adjusted earnings of $1.63 a share for the first quarter on revenue of $3.29 billion.
AA saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on May 22, 2023. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 88 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 88 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AA turned negative on May 26, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for AA entered a downward trend on May 30, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for AA's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AA advanced for three days, in of 283 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.248) is normal, around the industry mean (1.521). P/E Ratio (7.319) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.977). AA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.012) as compared to the industry average of (0.045). P/S Ratio (0.497) is also within normal values, averaging (757.899).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a miner of bauxite and aluminum
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AA has been closely correlated with CENX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AA jumps, then CENX could also see price increases.