Go to the list of all blogs
Rick Pendergraft's Avatar
published in Blogs
Sep 16, 2019

Alcoa hitting downward sloped trend line and gets a bearish signal

Basic materials stocks have performed relatively well in the last few weeks the sector has been in the upper half in terms of its performance versus the other 10 main sectors. The rally has allowed some companies to move up sharply and enter overbought territory. One such company is Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and it has moved up over 35% in the last three and a half weeks.

The rally has caused the stock the move in to overbought territory based on the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings. It has also brought a downward sloped trend line back in to the picture. If we connect the highs from February and April, we see the trend line and now the stock hit it this past week.

After touching the trend line, the stock backed off a little and we saw the stochastic readings make a bearish crossover as a result. We also see a possible round number resistance point at the $25 level. The stock hit the level last December and that served as a temporary low for several months before finally breaking below it in May.

The stock just moved above its 50-day moving average, but it is still below its 200-day which is at $25.36. The 50-day has been below the 200-day for over a year now.

In addition to the stochastic readings making a bearish crossover, the higher Bollinger Band was broken and that suggests a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band. According to the Tickeron Technical Analysis Overview, in 22 of 33 cases where Alcoa's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued downtrend are 67%.

The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for Alcoa on September 12. The signal shows a confidence level of 66% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on Alcoa have been successful 85% of the time.

The technical picture isn’t the only thing that isn’t looking good for Alcoa. The company’s fundamental indicators are also suggesting that a reversal could be coming soon. Earnings declined by 101% in the second quarter while sales fell by 24%.

These factors contribute to the Tickeron SMR rating for Alcoa being 97, indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Additional measurements from Tickeron show a Valuation Rating of 73 which indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry, the PE Growth Rating is 93, pointing to worse than average earnings growth, and the Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating is 100, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. Alcoa’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within the last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.

Even with all of indications from the fundamental and technical indicators, the sentiment toward Alcoa is pretty average. There are 15 analysts following the stock with eight “buy” ratings and seven “hold” ratings.

The short interest ratio is currently at 2.8 and that is right in the average range. The number of shares sold short did increase slightly in the second half of August and the current short interest sits at 9,479,500 shares. The company sees average trading volume of 3.4 million shares per day.

Related Ticker: AA

AA's RSI Indicator leaves overbought zone

The 10-day RSI Oscillator for AA moved out of overbought territory on April 10, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 28 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 63 cases where AA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AA turned negative on April 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

AA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 02, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The 10-day moving average for AA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on March 13, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 50-day moving average for AA moved above the 200-day moving average on April 04, 2024. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AA advanced for three days, in of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 211 cases where AA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.524) is normal, around the industry mean (2.488). AA has a moderately low P/E Ratio (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (24.083). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.609) is also within normal values, averaging (834.004).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Alcoa Corp (NYSE:AA).

Industry description

Aluminum is widely used in the industries like construction, packaging and automotive sector. The segment has seen increased demand for the lightweight variety in automobiles in improving fuel efficiency. The U.S. aluminum industry generates nearly $71 billion a year in direct economic impact (according to The Aluminum Association). Arconic, Inc, Alcoa Corp and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation are major aluminum companies in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Aluminum Industry is 7.14B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 138.37K to 54.35B. DKIAF holds the highest valuation in this group at 54.35B. The lowest valued company is NORNQ at 138.37K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Aluminum Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 18%, and the average quarterly price growth was 55%. CENX experienced the highest price growth at 3%, while CSTM experienced the biggest fall at -6%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Aluminum Industry was 51%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -19% and the average quarterly volume growth was -42%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 35
P/E Growth Rating: 48
Price Growth Rating: 85
SMR Rating: 75
Profit Risk Rating: 74
Seasonality Score: -37 (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
AADaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
Show more...
Ad is loading...
A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a miner of bauxite and aluminum

Industry Aluminum

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Aluminum
Address
201 Isabella Street
Phone
+1 412 315-2900
Employees
13600
Web
https://www.alcoa.com
Ad is loading...
Discover the dynamic world of cryptocurrency trading with Tickeron's AI analysis. Capitalize on bullish and bearish patterns in Origin Protocol (OGN.X), with gains up to 27.80%. Stay ahead with Tickeron's real-time insights and make informed trading decisions. #CryptoTrading #AIAnalysis #OriginProtocol #InvestSmart
#latest#popular#patterns#artificial_intelligence#trading#technical_analysis
Dive into the world of trading excellence with our Best AI Robot of the week! In a market characterized by growth, the key to maximizing profits lies not only in mainstream large-cap stocks but also in exploring opportunities across different market segments.
This article delves into the performance of AI trading robots, specifically those utilizing the "Swing trader: Long-Short Equity Strategy (TA&FA)." These bots showcased their prowess by delivering a notable +4.98% gain while engaging in MRNA trades over the previous week. Beyond mere statistics, we explore the technical indicators and recent earnings report of MRNA to shed light on the underlying dynamics influencing the stock.
Artificial intelligence (AI) trading bots have become powerful tools for investors seeking active trading opportunities. In a recent analysis conducted on the "Day Trader: High Volatility Stocks for Active Trading (TA&FA)" platform, AI trading bots exhibited impressive performance, generating a noteworthy +4.81% gain while actively trading Shopify (SHOP) over the course of the previous week.
In the dynamic world of finance, strategic asset acquisition is a game-changer. Recently, a group of stocks within this domain has been in the spotlight, showcasing notable performances and intriguing patterns. This article delves into the recent movements of these stocks, focusing on key indicators, market capitalization, notable price events, and volume dynamics.
Urology companies, comprising EDAP (EDAP), Teleflex (TFX), and UroGen Pharma (URGN), have shown a remarkable +6.67% increase in performance over the last week. In this analysis, we delve into various indicators and metrics to better understand the current landscape and individual trajectories within this thematic sector.
In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, Artificial Intelligence (AI) trading robots have emerged as potent tools for investors seeking an edge. The recent performance of the AI trading robots accessible through "Swing Trader, Popular Stocks: Short Bias Strategy (TA&FA)" has caught the attention of market participants. Notably, these bots generated an impressive +10.22% gain in a week, with a focus on trading TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company).
In the fast-paced world of stock trading, artificial intelligence (AI) has become a game-changer, with trading robots demonstrating impressive results. The "Day Trader: Medium Volatility Stocks for Active Trading (TA&FA)" platform recently showcased the effectiveness of its bots, generating a notable +7.86% gain while actively trading AMD over the past week.
​​​​​​​Aluminum companies have witnessed a remarkable surge in performance, with a collective increase of +8.75% over the past week. In this analysis, we delve into the dynamics of this surge, focusing on key indicators and individual stock movements. The tickers in focus are CENX, AA, KALU, and CSTM.
​​​​​​​Propane gas companies, represented by tickers NGL, SGU, and SPH, have exhibited a remarkable +8.22% increase in performance over the past week. This surge is substantiated by various technical indicators, fostering a positive outlook for investors. In this analysis, we delve into key indicators, market capitalization, notable price movements, and volume fluctuations to provide a comprehensive understanding of the current landscape.
In the fast-paced world of AI trading, algorithms powered by sophisticated technical analysis tools are making waves. The "Swing trader: Top High-Volatility Stocks v.2 (TA)" bots have proven their mettle, securing a remarkable +6.02% gain in a week of trading AVGO.
Artificial intelligence (AI) trading robots have become an integral part of the market landscape. One such example is the "Swing Trader, Popular Stocks: Short Bias Strategy (TA&FA)" bot, which showcased impressive results with a +5.54% gain while trading LRCX over the past week. In this article, we delve into the technical analysis of LRCX, examining its recent earnings report and broader industry trends.
The drilling industry has recently experienced a commendable upswing, with a substantial 8.22% surge in performance over the past week. In this article, we will dissect the current dynamics of key players in this sector, focusing on prominent tickers such as DO, RIG, HP, NBR, NR, PDS, and PTEN.
In the realm of AI-driven trading, the "Swing Trader: ETFs for Growing Industries (TA)" platform recently showcased impressive results, with its trading bots generating a noteworthy +5.09% gain while actively trading TQQQ over the past week. As we delve into the intricacies of these AI trading strategies, let's dissect the recent earning results and market indicators to better understand the driving forces behind their success.
In the fast-paced world of AI-driven trading, the utilization of sophisticated algorithms and technical analysis tools is becoming increasingly prevalent. One notable example is the Trend Trader, Popular Stocks: Price Action Trading Strategy (TA&FA), which demonstrated its prowess by generating a commendable +5.02% gain while trading NVDA over the past week. Let's delve into the technical indicators and earnings results to gain a comprehensive understanding of NVDA's current market standing.
In the fast-paced realm of biotech and pharmaceuticals, a group of stocks, including giants like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), Astex Pharmaceuticals (ATXS), AnaptysBio (ANAB), and Zymeworks (ZYME), witnessed a noteworthy 8.55% surge in performance over the past week. However, a closer look at various indicators suggests caution, signaling a potential downturn.
In the dynamic landscape of the energy sector, onshore oil exploration companies have recently experienced a remarkable upswing, with a notable 7.13% increase in performance over the past week. This surge has captivated market attention, and several key indicators point towards a sustained positive outlook. In this analysis, we delve into the financial health, market dynamics, and recent events surrounding prominent tickers in this domain - PXD, CNQ, PDS, PTEN, and FANG.
Tickeron's Quant team is delighted to introduce our latest AI-powered robot designed for trading small-cap stocks, employing a distinctive fundamental stock analysis algorithm. This algorithm, renowned for its blend of in-depth analysis and intuitive signal-following capabilities, is well-suited for both novice and seasoned traders.
In the dynamic world of stock trading, the utilization of AI trading robots has become increasingly prevalent. One such example is the "Trend Trader, Popular Stocks: Price Action Trading Strategy (TA&FA)," which showcased its prowess by yielding a remarkable +4.98% gain while trading ZIM over the previous week. As we delve into the intricacies of ZIM's recent performance, let's analyze the earnings results, market indicators, and industry trends that shape the narrative.
In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, artificial intelligence (AI) trading bots have emerged as powerful tools, providing investors with automated strategies to navigate the complexities of stock trading. In this analysis, we delve into the recent performance of AI trading robots, specifically those accessible through "Trend Trader, Popular Stocks: Price Action Trading Strategy (TA&FA)," which demonstrated a remarkable +4.67% gain while trading MRVL over the previous week.