Alcoa hitting upper rail of channel and triggering a bearish signal at the same time
The basic materials sector has been under pressure for the last four trading days and it is the worst performing sector of the 10 main sectors during that period. The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLB) has dropped 1.94% over the last four days. Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is a member of the materials sector and it fell 4.78% on Thursday, February 28.
The sudden decline could be just the beginning for Alcoa as the stock hit the upper rail of a downward sloped trend channel that has defined the trend over the last 10 months. The upper rail connects the highs from last April and October and the lower rail connects the lows from June, July, and December.
We also see that the daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory and just made a bearish crossover. The 10-day RSI was in overbought territory as well and dropped after the selling on Thursday.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bearish signal on February 27 with the signal calling for a drop of at least 4% in the coming months. The prediction came with a confidence level of 71% and 71% of previous predictions have been successful.
Alcoa’s fundamentals may be part of the problem for the stock. Earnings have been flat over the last three years and the EPS dropped by 37% in the most recent quarter. Sales have grown by 11% per year over the last three years and they were up by 5% in the most recent quarter.
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AA in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on August 21, 2026
AA moved above its 50-day moving average on August 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 46 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 31, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AA as a result. In of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AA just turned positive on July 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where AA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for AA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AA advanced for three days, in of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AA moved out of overbought territory on August 12, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 71 cases where AA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for AA moved below the 200-day moving average on August 06, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AA entered a downward trend on August 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AA's P/B Ratio (1.857) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.642). P/E Ratio (10.780) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.197). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.006) is also within normal values, averaging (0.921).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a miner of bauxite and aluminum
Industry Aluminum
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