Alcoa hitting upper rail of channel and triggering a bearish signal at the same time

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AA's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 60 cases where AA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AA just turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where AA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.

Following a +8.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AA advanced for three days, in 231 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.

AA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for AA entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 24 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AA's P/B Ratio (1.416) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.000). AA has a moderately high P/E Ratio (8.169) as compared to the industry average of (6.700). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.100) is also within normal values, averaging (0.345). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (0.849).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.