Aluminum Construction Companies: A Strong Weekly Surge Driven by Growing Demand
The aluminum construction companies have experienced a significant boost, with the segment seeing a +11.13% increase in performance over the past week. This growth is largely driven by the rising demand for lightweight materials, particularly in the automotive sector, where aluminum is being widely adopted to improve fuel efficiency. The aluminum industry plays a vital role in the U.S. economy, generating approximately $71 billion annually in direct economic impact, according to The Aluminum Association.
The companies in focus—Arconic, Inc. (ARNC), Alcoa Corp (AA), Century Aluminum (CENX), and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)—are some of the major players in the aluminum industry. Let's take a closer look at the key performance indicators, recent market trends, and potential opportunities within this group of stocks.
Market Capitalization Overview
The average market capitalization across this group of aluminum companies stands at $3.8 billion, with Alcoa (AA) leading the group with a market valuation of $10.1 billion. On the lower end, Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) is valued at $1.1 billion. This variance in market cap reflects different market strategies and levels of diversification among these companies, positioning some, like Alcoa, with broader global reach, while others maintain more niche market positions.
Ticker Breakdown:
- Alcoa Corp (AA) – Market Cap: $10.1 billion
- Century Aluminum (CENX) – Market Cap: $1.2 billion
- Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) – Market Cap: $1.1 billion
- Constellium SE (CSTM) – Market Cap: $3.4 billion
Stock Price Performance
In terms of stock price movement, the aluminum construction group has seen solid performance, with the average weekly price growth sitting at 6.11%, indicating bullish momentum across the segment. Monthly performance also grew by 3.95%, while the group experienced a quarterly decline of -4.78%.
Among the standouts:
- Alcoa (AA): With a 12.49% weekly surge, Alcoa was the top performer in the group, indicating strong market confidence in its growth prospects.
- Century Aluminum (CENX): The stock saw a respectable 5.7% weekly rise, adding to its earlier 21.15% jump the previous week, reflecting ongoing momentum in investor interest.
- Constellium SE (CSTM): This ticker experienced a slight decline of -0.95%, though it still sits near its recent highs, indicating room for recovery.
These price movements indicate a robust sentiment around aluminum stocks, with companies like Alcoa and Century Aluminum riding positive investor waves.
Notable Stock Movements:
- 9/25/24: Alcoa (AA) jumped +8.27%, continuing its strong upward trend.
- 9/25/24: Century Aluminum (CENX) gained +5.7%, cementing its weekly gains.
- 9/18/24: Century Aluminum saw a remarkable +21.15% weekly surge earlier in the month, driving its overall positive trajectory.
Volume Trends
Alongside price gains, the aluminum group has also seen heightened trading activity. Weekly volume growth across the group averaged 23.6%, with significant monthly volume growth at 101.33%. The rise in trading volume suggests increasing market interest in aluminum companies as they benefit from macroeconomic trends such as infrastructure spending and the shift toward greener technologies like electric vehicles (EVs), which are heavy users of aluminum.
Key Volume Movers:
- Kaiser Aluminum (KALU): This stock saw a record-breaking 328% increase in daily volume on April 26, 2024, significantly above its 65-day volume moving average. Such a spike in trading activity signals growing market attention.
Technical Indicators: Signals of Bullish Momentum
1. Century Aluminum (CENX) in Upward Trend
Century Aluminum (CENX) recently moved above its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2024, indicating a shift from a downward to an upward trend. Historically, this signal has been a strong indicator for future price increases, with a 89% likelihood of continuing upward momentum in similar past instances.
2. Momentum Indicator for Alcoa (AA) Turns Positive
On September 13, 2024, Alcoa's Momentum Indicator moved above zero, signaling the potential for a continued upward trend. Based on historical data from 90 similar instances, 81% of the time, this indicator has preceded further stock price increases, suggesting a buying opportunity for traders.
3. Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Moves Out of Oversold Territory
Kaiser Aluminum's Stochastic Oscillator, a technical indicator used to gauge market conditions, moved out of the oversold territory on September 13, 2024. This shift often precedes bullish price action, with the stock moving higher in 81% of the 59 historical instances where this condition was met.
In Summary: Aluminum Industry Poised for Growth
The aluminum sector is positioned for further gains, bolstered by increasing demand from key industries such as automotive, construction, and packaging. Companies like Alcoa and Century Aluminum are showing particularly strong technical indicators and investor sentiment, while Kaiser Aluminum and Constellium SE also present potential opportunities for growth as volume and technical signals suggest upward movement.
CENX in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 23, 2024
CENX moved above its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CENX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 17, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CENX as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CENX just turned positive on September 13, 2024. Looking at past instances where CENX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for CENX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 25, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CENX advanced for three days, in of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
CENX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 200 cases where CENX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for CENX moved below the 200-day moving average on September 26, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CENX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 70%.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CENX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.504) is normal, around the industry mean (2.038). P/E Ratio (7.692) is within average values for comparable stocks, (127.701). CENX's Dividend Yield (0.000) is considerably lower than the industry average of (0.030). P/S Ratio (0.736) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a producer of primary aluminum and aluminum products
Industry Aluminum