American Airlines Earnings Were Terrible, But It's Stock Soared. Here's Why
American Airlines reported earnings last week, and to no one's surprise, it lost a ton of money -- $2.2 billion for the quarter, to be exact. This marked a negative earnings-per-share (EPS) of -$3.86 for the quarter, losses not unlike those being felt across the airline industry.
But the stock soared on the news. There may be two reasons for this:
- Forecasts for American's earnings were to lose -$4.11 a share, which means the company handily beat earnings expectations.
- Short interest in American Airlines was high, which gave the company's shares a GameStop-like opportunity to squeeze short sellers. We may have seen a bit of that last week with AAL's big price jump.
Shorting American Airlines -- much like the shorts against GameStop -- were arguably justified. The company sports the lowest profit margins among the big U.S. carriers, and its innovation in the realm of technology is lacking. What's more, AAL's debt load is amongst the biggest in the industry, meaning that even in a post-pandemic economy it has its work cut out for it.
Airlines in general are poised to have a strong second half of 2021, once the country gets closer to mass immunization and people will safe traveling again. Big revenues are expected -- the question is, which airlines are best positioned to capture this resurgent growth? Below, Tickeron's Artificial Intelligence analyzes the entire industry, giving investors trading insights for what lies ahead.
Aroon Indicator for AAL shows an upward move is likely
AAL's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on June 17, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 237 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 237 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 11, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAL as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAL just turned positive on June 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where AAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AAL moved out of overbought territory on June 17, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AAL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AAL's P/B Ratio (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.160). AAL has a moderately high P/E Ratio (49.742) as compared to the industry average of (20.471). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.853) is also within normal values, averaging (2.126). AAL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.019). P/S Ratio (0.182) is also within normal values, averaging (0.639).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo
Industry Airlines
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