American Airlines Rallying on Falling Oil Prices, but Remains in Downward-Slope
Oil prices have fallen each of the last 12 days and that is a record for consecutive down sessions. With the big drop in oil prices, airline stocks have performed really well. One such stock is American Airlines (Nasdaq: AAL) and it has jumped almost 25% in the last three weeks. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is up a whopping 2.5% in the last three weeks.
Despite the sharp rally by American, the stock is facing some resistance just ahead in the form of the upper rail of a downward-sloped trend channel. The upper rail is the result of connecting the highs from March and September while the stock has hit what looks to be the lower rail on several occasions.
The daily stochastic readings are already in overbought territory and the 10-day RSI is close. When these indicators have both been in overbought territory is when the stock has experienced the most problems over the last eight months.
American’s fundamentals are interesting because the earnings have been declining, but the profitability measurements are pretty good. Over the last three years, earnings have declined by an average of 21% per year. They declined by 25% in the most recent quarterly report and analysts expect an EPS decline of 15% for the year.
Despite the declining sales, the return on equity is at 67.5% and the profit margin is at 9.9%. This mix of measurements is rather odd and could explain the longer-term downtrend. Of course, if oil prices continue to fall, the fundamentals could change dramatically in the coming quarters.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
AAL in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on August 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AAL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AAL as a result. In 60 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AAL turned negative on August 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 58%.
AAL moved below its 50-day moving average on August 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for AAL entered a downward trend on September 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AAL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 38 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 21 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AAL's P/B Ratio (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.671). P/E Ratio (43.726) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.597). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.092) is also within normal values, averaging (2.991). AAL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.021). P/S Ratio (0.148) is also within normal values, averaging (0.536).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo
Industry Airlines
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