An Interesting Time for UPS to Develop a Possible Bearish Formation
Parcel delivery company United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) is currently in one of its busiest times of the year. During the holiday season, the company sees a big boost to package traffic due to the increase in sales from retailers and individuals shipping packages to their loved ones. To give you an idea of how much business increases, I looked back at 2017’s quarterly results. The company’s revenue jumped by 17.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared to the third quarter.
While the revenue boost is interesting, that isn’t what caught my eye. Looking at the daily chart of UPS, we could be seeing a head and shoulders pattern forming and that would be a bearish sign for the stock.
We see that the stock topped out around the $117.50 area in June and then dipped down to the $103.50 level in July. This could be the left shoulder and the left side of the neck. The stock then rallied up to the $124 area in September before dipping back down to the $103.50 area in late October. Over the past month the stock has rallied back up to the $117.50 area.
The stock could still break through this area, but is interesting that it stalled there yesterday when the market was making such a strong move. The stock gapped up 1.15% on the open, but then fell throughout the day and ended up taking a small loss on the day.
The next day or two will give us a better idea of whether the stock is more likely to drop back down to complete the head and shoulders pattern or break above the resistance at the $117.50 area.
UPS in +2.84% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on October 03, 2025
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 193 cases where UPS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 65 cases where UPS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 10, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UPS as a result. In of 100 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
UPS moved below its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
UPS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 03, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.460) is normal, around the industry mean (4.455). P/E Ratio (12.332) is within average values for comparable stocks, (188.548). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.323) is also within normal values, averaging (1.605). UPS's Dividend Yield (0.079) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.030). P/S Ratio (0.782) is also within normal values, averaging (0.988).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
a provider of global package delivery and supply chain management solutions
Industry OtherTransportation
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