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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
May 24, 2019

Autodesk (ADSK, $163.02 ) slips against Q1 earnings estimates

Autodesk missed earnings and revenue estimates for its fiscal first-quarter.

The software maker reported earnings of 45 cents per share for the quarter, falling behind analysts’ expectations of 47 cents per share (based on Refinitiv data).

Revenue of $735.5 million came in lower than estimates of $740 million (based on Refinitiv poll). However, revenue was +31% higher from the year-ago quarter. Autodesk’s revenue from subscription surged +67% to $595.8 million, slightly below the $599.6 million expectation from analysts polled by FactSet.

Looking ahead, the company predicts adjusted earnings per share of 59 cents to 63 cents for the second quarter, compared to 62 cents expected by analysts (based on Refinitiv  poll). It projects revenue of $782 million to $792 million for the quarter, while analysts’ forecast $788.5 million.

For the full fiscal year, Autodesk expects adjusted earnings of $2.71 to $2.90 per share, on $3.25 billion to $3.30 billion in revenue. The Refinitiv consensus expected $2.83 in earnings per share on $3.29 billion in revenue.

 

Related Ticker: ADSK

ADSK's Stochastic Oscillator is sitting in overbought zone for 10 days

The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The 50-day moving average for ADSK moved below the 200-day moving average on May 31, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

ADSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 17, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 07, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADSK as a result. In of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADSK just turned positive on June 05, 2024. Looking at past instances where ADSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ADSK moved above its 50-day moving average on June 12, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for ADSK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 17, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 79%.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (29.940) is normal, around the industry mean (30.463). P/E Ratio (61.919) is within average values for comparable stocks, (157.779). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.557) is also within normal values, averaging (2.738). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.082) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.194) is also within normal values, averaging (54.818).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 10.48B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.15T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.15T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 11%. SANT experienced the highest price growth at 121%, while NHIQ experienced the biggest fall at -60%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 26%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -6% and the average quarterly volume growth was 65%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 75
Price Growth Rating: 62
SMR Rating: 83
Profit Risk Rating: 89
Seasonality Score: 12 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a developer of multimedia software products

Industry PackagedSoftware

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Packaged Software
Address
One Market Street
Phone
+1 415 507-5000
Employees
13700
Web
https://www.autodesk.com
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