Bearish signal on National Oilwell Varco ahead of earnings
Oil equipment manufacturer National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) is scheduled to report first quarter earnings on Thursday, April 25. Analysts expect the company to report a loss of $0.01 per share for the quarter after reporting a loss of $0.21 per share in the first quarter of 2018.
The chart shows that the stock fell 8.39% on April 12 after it had moved in to overbought territory based on the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings. The stochastics made a bearish crossover on the big decline and the RSI dropped sharply.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Tool generated a bearish signal for National Oilwell Varco on April 12 and that signal calls for a decline of at least 4% in the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 55% which isn’t that high, but the past signals on the stock have been successful 79% of the time.
To be blunt, the company’s fundamentals aren’t very good. Sales have declined by 14% per year over the last three years and the profit margin is only 0.5%. It showed earnings growth of 175% in the fourth quarter, but that is a little misleading. The company earned $0.09 per share for the fourth quarter and that is an improvement over the loss of $0.04 in the fourth quarter of 2017.
In the last three earnings reports, National Oilwell has earned $0.09, broke even, and earned $0.06. Prior to that stretch, the company had been losing money for several years.
NOV in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025
NOV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 38 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 22, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NOV as a result. In of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NOV turned negative on May 28, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 41 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NOV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NOV advanced for three days, in of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 216 cases where NOV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.258) is normal, around the industry mean (2.417). P/E Ratio (7.880) is within average values for comparable stocks, (42.382). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.268) is also within normal values, averaging (2.692). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.911) is also within normal values, averaging (1.450).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NOV’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NOV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a company which engages in manufacturing of oil & gas drilling field machinery and equipment
Industry OilfieldServicesEquipment
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