Bearish Signals Generated on 3 Real Estate ETFs
Interest rates in the U.S. have been rising over the last six months, not the Fed Funds rates that the Federal Reserve controls, but the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. If we look at a daily chart for the 10-year treasury yield, it has jumped from 0.504% last August to a recent high of 1.193%.
The trek higher has been steady and consistent. If this was a stock chart I was looking at, I would be looking to buy it the next time it cycled lower a little. You can see the trend line that connects the lows back to last August. It’s currently sitting right around 1.0%.
If you looked at the title of this article, you might be wondering what rising interest rates on treasuries have to do with real estate ETFs. The connection is that when the rates on less risky treasuries rise, other income generating investments become less appealing.
Like we see when bonds become less attractive, the price has to fall by enough to make the yield attractive again. This could be what the bearish signals are suggesting about the real estate ETFs—that the yield isn’t as attractive now because treasury yields have been rising.
Regardless of the reasoning, the three most actively traded real estate ETFs all generated bearish signals on February 5. Those signals came from the Tickeron A.I. trend prediction tool. The three ETFs are the iShares US Real Estate ETF (IYR), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE).
The bearish signals call for a decline of at least 4% over the next month, but there is a pretty significant difference in the confidence level between the three signals. The signal for the XLRE is 76% while the confidence levels on the other two are both at 54%.
Because these are ETFs, we don’t have the traditional fundamental indicators that we can break down, but the technical indicators are the same as with an individual stock. In the case of these three funds, they all three have seen bearish signals come from the RSI Indicator, the Aroon Indicator, and the Bollinger Bands indicator. It is also worth noting that all three are in overbought territory based on the daily stochastic indicators.
Looking back at the chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, it looks like it is ready for a short cycle lower at this time, so we could see the ETFs and the treasury yield move lower together.
The complete analysis and comparison of the three funds appears below. The information from Tickeron shows how the funds compare to one another as well as other ETFs and stocks.
XLRE's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for XLRE moved out of oversold territory on April 09, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 23 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 21, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLRE as a result. In of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLRE just turned positive on April 17, 2025. Looking at past instances where XLRE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLRE moved above its 50-day moving average on April 30, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XLRE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 06, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLRE advanced for three days, in of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 60 cases where XLRE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for XLRE moved below the 200-day moving average on April 09, 2025. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLRE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLRE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 02, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for XLRE entered a downward trend on April 14, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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Category RealEstate