Big Week for Telecom Equipment Earnings
We are in the heart of the second quarter earnings season and we have already heard from a number of big tech companies. There have been a few positive surprises, but it seems like there have been more negative surprises. At least the reaction from investors has been negative.
Earnings results will continue to roll in this coming week and the telecom equipment industry will be in the spotlight. Corning (GLW) and Juniper Networks (JNPR) are both set to report on Tuesday while Qualcomm (QCOM) is set to report on Wednesday.
Tickeron has a positive outlook on this group and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month. The likelihood of success is 73%. The scorecard shows Corning rated as a “strong buy” while Juniper and Qualcomm both have “buy” ratings.
The fundamental analysis summary shows both Corning and Juniper are undervalued at this time. Qualcomm is fairly valued. Qualcomm scores better than the others in the Profit Vs. Risk rating while Juniper is poorly rated in that category. Qualcomm has two positive, or green, ratings and no negative ratings. Corning and Juniper each have two positive ratings with one negative rating for each.
The technical analysis screener shows Corning with three positive readings from the AROON Indicator, the MACD, and the Momentum Indicator. The only negative reading is from the Bollinger bands and that rating only shows odds of success at 55% on a move lower.
Juniper shows bullish signals from its MACD and Momentum indicators, but it has bearish signals from its AROON indicator and the Bollinger Bands. Qualcomm shows bullish signals from the Bollinger Bands and the AROON Indicator. There are also bearish signals from the Stochastic indicators and the Momentum indicator.
Looking at the weekly charts, Corning and Qualcomm both show weekly stochastic readings that are in overbought territory. Qualcomm’s readings just made a bearish crossover and past instances of bearish crossovers have been pretty accurate at predicting downturns in the stock. Corning’s stochastic readings just turned higher and are still climbing at this point.
Juniper’s weekly chart shows that the stock is just below its 104-week moving average. The RSI is climbing, but it isn’t in overbought territory. The stochastic indicators made a bullish crossover this week. The readings are just below the 60 level currently, so they have a way to go before they would be in overbought territory.
One area where we see a big difference between the three stocks is in the earnings estimates and the sentiment readings. Corning has seen the consensus estimate for the quarter drop considerably over the last 90 days while the estimates for Juniper and Qualcomm have dropped slightly.
Analysts and short sellers are far more bullish on Qualcomm than they are on the other two. Of the 29 analysts covering Qualcomm, 18 have the stock rated as a “buy”. Corning and Juniper each have a meager five “buy” ratings. If we look at the ratings in terms of the buys as a percentage of the total, Qualcomm’s buy percentage is at 62%. Corning’s buy percentage is only 38.5% and Juniper’s is really low at 23.8%.
The short interest ratios (SIR) for Corning and Juniper are higher than the average stock with readings of 4.5 and 4.0, respectively. The average short interest ratio is in the 3.0 range. We see that Qualcomm’s ratio is well below average at 1.7.
Based on all of the data, the fundamentals, the technical analysis, and the sentiment indicators, it looks like Juniper has the best shot at moving higher after the earnings report. The fundamentals are decent, the stock isn’t overbought, and the sentiment is skewed to the bearish side. From a contrarian perspective, having bearish sentiment is a good thing.
Qualcomm may be the better long-term investment, but investors might be better served waiting for a little dip before entering a new position. Corning’s short-term indicators look good and that’s why it gets the “strong buy” rating from the Tickeron scorecard.
Aroon Indicator for QCOM shows an upward move is likely
QCOM's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 16, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 258 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 258 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on QCOM as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QCOM just turned positive on September 11, 2024. Looking at past instances where QCOM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
QCOM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for QCOM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QCOM advanced for three days, in of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 67 cases where QCOM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for QCOM moved below the 200-day moving average on September 26, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QCOM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
QCOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.680) is normal, around the industry mean (7.455). P/E Ratio (21.746) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.452). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.062) is also within normal values, averaging (2.825). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.141) is also within normal values, averaging (43.049).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QCOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a provider of wireless communication systems
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