Biogen (BIIB, $285.47) gets double upgrade on rating from Morgan Stanley

Biotech company Biogen received a double upgrade to an overweight rating from analysts at Morgan Stanley. Also,  Morgan Stanley boosted the price target to $357 from $263 per share.

While Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison still sees near-term downside risks from generic competitors to Biogen's Tecfidera multiple sclerosis treatment, he also sees upside in the company's experimental Alzherimer's treatment, aducanumab. The Food and Drug Administration is expected to accept the aducanumab filing in early September.

"While we maintain our long-held view that the mixed PhIII data on aducanumab are hypothesis generating, but not sufficient to demonstrate a clear effect of the drug, we will be the first to acknowledge that the FDA review may come down to more than just data," Harrison wrote. 

 Tickeron's analysis:

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 23, 2020. Traders may consider selling the ticker, shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 54 of 81 cases where BIIB's Momentum Indicator fell below the 0 level, its price fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 67%.

The 50-day Moving Average crossing below its 200-day Moving Average indicates a sell signal, due to the trend repositioning lower. In 4 of 5 cases where BIIB's 50-day Moving Average crossed below its 200-day Moving Average, its price fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 80%.

Following a 3-day Decline, the ticker is projected to fall further. Considering data from situations where BIIB declined for three days, in 160 of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 58%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 26 of 37 cases where BIIB's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 70%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a Downtrend to an Uptrend -- in cases where BIIB's RSI indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.

The Stochastic Indicator suggests the ticker price trend may be in a reversal from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. 32 of 61 cases where BIIB's Stochastic Indicator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just turned positive. Considering data from situations where BIIB's MACD histogram became positive, in 26 of 41 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 78%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.12 to 1.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BIIB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.81) is normal, around the industry mean (3.91). P/E Ratio (7.98) is within average values for comparable stocks, (64.74). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.29) is also within normal values, averaging (4.86). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.08) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.31) is also within normal values, averaging (1243.63).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to slightly better than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BIIB’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

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