BP (BP) Q1 2026 Earnings: $3.2 Billion Underlying Profit Tops Expectations
Key Takeaways
- Underlying replacement cost (RC) profit reached $3.2 billion for the first quarter ended 31 March 2026, up from $1.5 billion in the prior quarter.
- Reported profit attributable to shareholders hit $3.8 billion, reversing a $3.4 billion loss from Q4 2025.
- Revenue came in at $52.26 billion, surpassing consensus expectations of $48.43 billion.
- Customers & Products segment delivered underlying RC profit before interest and tax of $3.2 billion, boosted by refining margins and oil trading.
- Quarterly dividend maintained at 8.320 cents per ordinary share, with commitment to at least 4% annual growth.
- Net debt rose to $25.3 billion amid working capital build; full-year capital expenditure guidance reiterated at $13-13.5 billion.
Q1 Earnings in Context
In a volatile energy market shaped by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices, BP's first quarter 2026 results shed light on the company's operational resilience and trading capabilities. As one of the world's largest integrated oil majors, BP navigates pressures from the energy transition, refining margin volatility, and upstream disruptions. From what I see, investors pay close attention to these earnings for clues on profitability, especially amid efforts to maintain capital discipline and reduce debt. This strong Q1 performance highlights BP's ability to turn market dislocations into opportunities, which bears on its valuation and strategic direction under new leadership.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
BP p.l.c. reported underlying RC profit—a key non-GAAP measure that adjusts for inventory valuation effects—of $3.2 billion for the three months ended 31 March 2026. This figure beat analyst expectations and marked a sharp rebound from $1.5 billion in Q4 2025. The gains stemmed from exceptional oil trading and elevated refining margins in the Customers & Products segment, which delivered $3.2 billion in underlying RC profit before interest and tax, up from $1.3 billion in the prior quarter. Oil Production & Operations remained steady at $2.0 billion underlying, while Gas & Low Carbon Energy improved to $1.3 billion.
Reported profit attributable to shareholders reached $3.8 billion, lifted by $3.2 billion in inventory holding gains but tempered by adverse adjusting items. Underlying RC profit per American Depositary Share (ADS) was $1.24, exceeding consensus estimates of around $0.86-$0.93. Revenue totaled $52.26 billion, topping forecasts of $48.43 billion. Operating cash flow stood at $2.9 billion after a $6.0 billion working capital build driven by rising prices and seasonal factors. The company declared a dividend of 8.320 cents per ordinary share. One thing that stands out to me is how these segment results compare across the industry; I checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge BP's relative strength.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
BP shares rose after the Q1 earnings release, placing among the FTSE 100 gainers as the market applauded the profit beat and solid trading performance. The positive response reflects approval of the segment strength amid energy market swings, even with some minor pre-market fluctuations. In my view, sentiment has shifted optimistically toward BP's cash generation and dividend reliability, despite concerns over rising net debt.
Discovering Opportunities with Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my research process, I rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for discovering stocks and ETFs. It allows me to filter thousands of assets using customizable criteria like technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals—such as industry, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. This helps me pinpoint trade ideas, breakout candidates, and opportunities far more efficiently than manual methods, streamlining my workflow when analyzing companies like BP.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Watch
BP reaffirmed its 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $13-13.5 billion, focusing on disciplined spending in high-return projects. The company aims for net debt of $14-18 billion by the end of 2027, bolstered by divestment proceeds and hybrid bond reductions to around $9 billion.
I'm watching structural cost savings, now targeted at $6.5-7.5 billion by 2027 after planned refinery sales, as well as upstream production reliability in the face of geopolitical risks. Refining margins and trading results will remain crucial, given their major role in Q1. The commitment to at least 4% annual dividend growth per ordinary share reinforces focus on shareholders.
Key broader elements include oil price movements, progress in low-carbon energy, and shifts in gas and renewables demand. Upcoming milestones feature Q2 results and potential asset transactions, all in support of balance sheet strengthening under CEO Meg O'Neill's vision for a "simpler, stronger" BP.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
Aroon Indicator for BP shows an upward move is likely
BP's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on September 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 282 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 193 of the 282 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BP as a result. In 66 of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +0.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BP advanced for three days, in 216 of 360 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BP moved out of overbought territory on September 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 61%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 30 of 66 cases where BP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BP turned negative on September 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
BP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 19 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.965) is normal, around the industry mean (1.944). P/E Ratio (21.295) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.048). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.058) is also within normal values, averaging (1.094). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.548) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a producer of petroleum, natural gas and related products
Industry IntegratedOil
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