Bullish signal on Atlassian just days after earnings disappointment
Atlassian (Nasdaq: TEAM) released earnings last week and the enterprise software company beat on its EPS estimate and revenue estimate, but the June profit forecast was disappointing to investors.
The disappointment caused the stock to gap lower on April 18 and the stock stabilized just above the $100 mark. If we connect the highs from December, February, and March, that could be the upper rail of a trend channel. The parallel lower rail would connect the low from November with the low from last week, if indeed this is a trend channel.
The pullback in the stock caused the daily oscillators to fall to their lowest levels since last October. They never actually reached oversold territory, but each stock can be different in that regard. The stochastic readings made a bullish crossover on April 24 and that could be a good sign.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on Atlassian on April 23 and that signal showed a confidence level of 87%. Just as impressive as that confidence level is the fact that 77% of past predictions on the stock have been successful. This signal calls for a 4% move to the upside within the next month.
The fundamentals for Atlassian are among the best out there. The company scores a 99 on the EPS rating from Investor’s Business Daily and that is the highest score a company can get. It also receives an A in the SMR category which is the best a company can get for its sales growth, profit margin, and return on equity.
Atlassian has seen its earnings grow at an annual rate of 33% per year over the last three years while sales have grown at a rate of 39% during that same period. Atlassian’s composite score, which combines the fundamental ratings with the price performance, is a 99—once again the highest score a stock can get.
TEAM in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on April 26, 2024
TEAM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 32 cases where TEAM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 55 cases where TEAM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TEAM advanced for three days, in of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TEAM moved out of overbought territory on April 12, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 19, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TEAM as a result. In of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TEAM turned negative on April 26, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
TEAM moved below its 50-day moving average on April 15, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for TEAM moved below the 200-day moving average on April 24, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TEAM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TEAM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TEAM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (55.556) is normal, around the industry mean (29.955). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (155.220). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.505) is also within normal values, averaging (2.725). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.804) is also within normal values, averaging (55.388).
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General Information
an enterprise software solutions provider
Industry PackagedSoftware