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Dec 26, 2022

Carmax (KMX, $60.14) misses fiscal Q3 expectations, amidst high inflation

Carmax third-quarter results fell short of analysts’ expectations, amidst inflationary pressures dampening consumer demand.

The used-car retailer’s earnings fell -85% from a year ago to $0.24 per share in the quarter, missing the $0.70 expectation from Thomson Reuters survey.

Revenue was down -24% year-over-year to $6.51 billion in the quarter, vs. analysts’ expectations of  $7.3 billion. Retail used units sold decreased -20.8% to 180,050 in the quarter ending November 30, while same-store used unit sales were down -22.4%. Average selling prices for its used cars were up +1.9% to $28,530.

CarMax CEO Bill Nash indicated that vehicle affordability challenges continued to affect the company’s third quarter unit sales performance amidst widespread inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and low consumer confidence.

"External title data indicates that we gained market share on a year-to-date basis through October, though we've seen some recent loss of share. We are focused on profitable market share gains that can be sustained for the long-term," CarMax stated.

Citing its quarterly performance and market uncertainties, CarMax has suspended share repurchases.

 

Related Ticker: KMX

KMX sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average

The 50-day moving average for KMX moved above the 200-day moving average on March 25, 2024. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 28, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KMX as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KMX just turned positive on March 21, 2024. Looking at past instances where KMX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

KMX moved above its 50-day moving average on February 22, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KMX advanced for three days, in of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 260 cases where KMX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KMX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

KMX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. KMX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KMX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.276) is normal, around the industry mean (9.979). P/E Ratio (27.831) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.053). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.077) is also within normal values, averaging (2.606). KMX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (0.519) is also within normal values, averaging (87.329).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's Companies (NYSE:LOW), AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO), Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), Best Buy Company (NYSE:BBY), Bath & Body Works (NYSE:BBWI), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE), RH (NYSE:RH), Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP).

Industry description

The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Specialty Stores Industry is 7.98B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 48 to 380.15B. HD holds the highest valuation in this group at 380.15B. The lowest valued company is CALI at 48.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was 4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 2%, and the average quarterly price growth was 46%. POLCQ experienced the highest price growth at 186%, while JOAN experienced the biggest fall at -37%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was 23%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 23% and the average quarterly volume growth was 47%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 49
P/E Growth Rating: 53
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 67
Profit Risk Rating: 75
Seasonality Score: 0 (-100 ... +100)
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KMXDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a holding company whose subsidiaries sell and finance used motor vehicles

Industry SpecialtyStores

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Specialty Stores
Address
12800 Tuckahoe Creek Parkway
Phone
+1 804 747-0422
Employees
30621
Web
https://www.carmax.com
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