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Jun 19, 2020

CarMax (KMX, $92.45) reports fiscal Q1 earnings' pandemic plunge

On Friday, CarMax  reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that saw a steep plunge from the year-ago period, on shutdown due to the covid-19 crisis.

The retail used-cars company’ net earnings fell to $5 million, or 3 cents a share, from $266.7 million, or $1.59 a share in the year-ago period. 

The EPS was also lower than the 4 cents expected by analysts polled by FactSet.

Sales declined -40% year-over-year to $3.23 billion, compared to analysts’ expectation of $2.7 billion. Comparable-store used unit sales dropped -42% during the quarter.

The overall result also included a $122 million in loan-loss provisions for CarMax’s financing unit. Revenue in its financing business fell to $51 million from $116 million.

CarMax CEO Bill Nash said, “We accomplished a lot this quarter, despite the challenges the pandemic posed,” Nash noted that more than 80% of the days in the quarter “were negatively impacted by a mix of store closures and limited operations.” 

However, Nash feels sanguine about the sales and customer foot traffic in late May and into June, particularly among used-car sales, and online.

Tickeron's AI-powered scorecard rates CarMax a STRONG BUY.

KMX enters an Uptrend as Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on June 12, 2020

This indicator signals that KMX's price has momentum to move higher, since its current price moved above its price 14 days ago. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 50 of 76 cases where KMX's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%

Current price $92.45 crossed the support line at $93.17 and is trading between $93.17 support and $88.79 support lines. Throughout the month of 05/18/20 - 06/18/20, the price experienced a +23% Uptrend. During the week of 06/11/20 - 06/18/20, the stock enjoyed a +12% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KMX advanced for three days, in 190 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 169 of 268 similar cases where KMX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator appears to be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 22 of 38 cases where KMX's RSI indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 58%.

The Stochastic Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossed below the signal line. In 26 of 41 cases where KMX's MACD histogram became negative, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 63%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 20 of 40 cases where KMX's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 50%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 58%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.56 to 1.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. KMX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.24) is normal, around the industry mean (13.77). P/E Ratio (18.39) is within average values for comparable stocks, (49.38). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.41) is also within normal values, averaging (16.00). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (1.23) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.71) is also within normal values, averaging (0.61).

 

Related Ticker: KMX

KMX in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on February 22, 2024

KMX moved above its 50-day moving average on February 22, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 46 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 28, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KMX as a result. In of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KMX just turned positive on February 26, 2024. Looking at past instances where KMX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 10-day moving average for KMX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 01, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KMX advanced for three days, in of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 269 cases where KMX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KMX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

KMX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 29, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KMX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KMX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.079) is normal, around the industry mean (9.016). P/E Ratio (25.425) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.701). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.984) is also within normal values, averaging (2.744). KMX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.036). P/S Ratio (0.474) is also within normal values, averaging (84.136).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's Companies (NYSE:LOW), AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO), Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), Best Buy Company (NYSE:BBY), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE), Bath & Body Works (NYSE:BBWI), RH (NYSE:RH), GameStop Corp (NYSE:GME).

Industry description

The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Specialty Stores Industry is 7.76B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 48 to 382.63B. HD holds the highest valuation in this group at 382.63B. The lowest valued company is CALI at 48.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was 0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 32%, and the average quarterly price growth was 43%. MHRE experienced the highest price growth at 70%, while JOAN experienced the biggest fall at -45%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was -1%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 0% and the average quarterly volume growth was 26%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 49
P/E Growth Rating: 52
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 67
Profit Risk Rating: 74
Seasonality Score: 0 (-100 ... +100)
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KMXDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a holding company whose subsidiaries sell and finance used motor vehicles

Industry SpecialtyStores

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Specialty Stores
Address
12800 Tuckahoe Creek Parkway
Phone
+1 804 747-0422
Employees
30621
Web
https://www.carmax.com
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KMX and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KMX has been closely correlated with LAD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KMX jumps, then LAD could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
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6M
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Ticker /
NAME
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To KMX
1D Price
Change %
KMX100%
+0.35%
LAD - KMX
67%
Closely correlated
-0.86%
PAG - KMX
60%
Loosely correlated
-0.92%
ABG - KMX
59%
Loosely correlated
-2.05%
CPRT - KMX
58%
Loosely correlated
+0.99%
KAR - KMX
56%
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+1.01%
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