CarMax (KMX) Q1 Fiscal 2027 Earnings Preview: What Analysts Are Watching
Key Takeaways
- CarMax is scheduled to report first quarter fiscal 2027 results on June 17, 2026, before market open.
- Consensus estimates call for earnings per share of $0.94 and revenue of approximately $7.54 billion.
- Investors will focus on used vehicle unit sales, retail margins, and wholesale performance amid a challenging auto retail environment.
- Year-over-year comparisons reflect expectations for modest revenue declines and lower earnings versus the prior-year quarter.
- Guidance updates and commentary on inventory levels and consumer demand will shape post-earnings sentiment.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
CarMax stands as the largest retailer of used vehicles in the United States, so its quarterly results often serve as a useful indicator for consumer spending on larger discretionary purchases. The upcoming release covers the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended May 31, 2026. In recent periods the company has shown some earnings resilience even as sales volumes softened, thanks in part to cost discipline and contributions from financing income. With used-car prices appearing more stable and interest rates staying elevated, this report should offer clues on whether demand is starting to recover or if it faces additional headwinds as the summer selling season approaches.
What Wall Street Expects
Analysts are projecting CarMax will deliver earnings per share of $0.94 for the quarter, representing a decline of roughly 32% from the same period a year earlier. Revenue is forecast to come in near $7.54 billion, essentially flat to modestly lower year over year. The metrics drawing the most attention include retail used vehicle unit sales, average selling prices, gross profit per unit, and wholesale vehicle revenue. I’m also looking for any updates to full-year guidance along with management’s views on inventory acquisition costs and financing trends. CarMax shares have historically shown notable movement around earnings, often reacting to surprises in unit volumes or margin outcomes.
Market Sentiment Heading Into the Report
Investor sentiment appears cautious at the moment, with shares trading near multi-month lows amid broader worries about consumer spending and auto retail demand. Estimates have been trimmed modestly in recent weeks, reflecting more tempered expectations for volume growth. A result that exceeds expectations on units or margins could trigger a relief move higher, while any downside surprises might heighten concerns about a slower recovery in the used-vehicle market.
Key Areas to Watch After the Release
Once the numbers are out, attention will turn to management’s outlook for the balance of fiscal 2027. Retail used vehicle sales volumes and the ability to maintain pricing discipline to support gross margins will be closely followed. Wholesale operations and any commentary on inventory levels matter as well, since they affect both near-term revenue and future acquisition costs.
Financing income generated by CarMax’s lending platform continues to be an important contributor, so updates on credit performance and origination trends will be relevant. Broader factors such as new-vehicle supply, interest rate movements, and consumer confidence could also influence demand in upcoming quarters.
Cost management and efficiency efforts are likely to feature in the forward discussion given the competitive landscape. Any color on capital allocation, including potential share repurchases or other strategic moves, may provide additional insight into longer-term priorities.
How Tickeron’s AI Screener Fits Into My Research Process
When preparing for earnings like these, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly compare CarMax against peers on technical patterns, fundamentals, and recent performance metrics. It helps surface relevant data points without having to manually comb through dozens of screens. AI Screener
Disclaimer
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Disclaimers and LimitationsContributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
KMX in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026
KMX moved below its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 47 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KMX as a result. In 73 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for KMX turned negative on September 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
The 10-day moving average for KMX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KMX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator for KMX entered a downward trend on October 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KMX advanced for three days, in 219 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
KMX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KMX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.312) is normal, around the industry mean (2.313). P/E Ratio (35.124) is within average values for comparable stocks, (44.786). KMX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.417) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.007) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.324) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KMX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a holding company whose subsidiaries sell and finance used motor vehicles
Industry AutomotiveAftermarket
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