Cboe Global Markets (CBOE): Q1 2026 Earnings Preview Amid Record Volumes and +35% EPS Growth
Key Takeaways
- Analysts forecast first-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.37, representing 35% year-over-year growth from $2.50.
- Consensus revenue estimate stands at $709 million, up 25% from $565 million in Q1 2025.
- March 2026 trading volumes hit records, including S&P 500 Index (SPX) options average daily volume (ADV) of 5.4 million contracts and SPX zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) options at 3.2 million.
- Preliminary revenue per contract (RPC) for Q1 remains stable across options and futures segments.
- Cboe has beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, with a 4.4% surprise in Q4 2025.
- Strong derivatives and equities volumes position the company for potential outperformance amid elevated market volatility.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), as a leading global exchange operator, draws most of its revenue from trading fees on options, futures, and equities. From what I see, this first-quarter 2026 earnings report stands out because it captures ongoing market volatility and record options activity, especially in SPX and 0DTE products. Investors like me are paying close attention for evidence of lasting volume growth and steady margins, building on the record EPS beat from Q4 2025. With shares hovering near all-time highs, these results could confirm the durability of derivatives strength against geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, while underscoring CBOE's market share advances in a competitive field.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street expects solid growth here, with consensus adjusted EPS pegged at $3.37 alongside $708.61 million in net revenue—marking 35% and 25% gains, respectively, from Q1 2025's $2.50 EPS and $565 million revenue. Recent upward revisions in estimates reflect this optimism, fueled by record quarterly ADV in proprietary index options at 6.1 million contracts. I also checked comparable metrics using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge how CBOE stacks up against industry peers.
Key figures to watch include derivatives net revenue, driven by high SPX and VIX volumes, plus data and access fees. Preliminary Q1 RPC/net revenue capture guidance indicates stability: $0.342 for total options and $1.649 for futures. CBOE has a track record of EPS beats, like the Q4 2025 surprise, and the stock has typically reacted positively to surprises over the past five years.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into earnings leans bullish, supported by March's volume records and all-time highs in European equities ADNV. Options pricing suggests a potential 5-7% stock move after the report, in line with CBOE's historical patterns. That said, risks linger, such as softer RPC if volatility eases or if regulatory scrutiny on 0DTE trading intensifies. The stock has proven resilient, climbing on 14 of 20 recent earnings days tied to positive surprises.
Tools I Use: Tickeron’s AI Screener
One tool I rely on regularly for this kind of analysis is Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery platform that lets me filter the market using technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. It scans thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable criteria like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics, surfacing trade ideas, trending names, breakouts, and opportunities far more efficiently than manual methods. This helps me make data-driven calls across different strategies.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
I'll be looking closely at updated full-year 2026 guidance, especially net revenue growth and adjusted EPS projections amid persistent market turbulence. CBOE's focus on proprietary products like SPX and VIX options points to ongoing derivatives momentum, assuming volatility holds.
Net revenue capture rates will be telling—stable RPC with elevated volumes could support stronger margins. Equities transaction volumes, lifted by off-exchange growth, along with international progress in Europe and FX, deserve scrutiny. The earnings call might reveal catalysts such as new product launches or M&A activity.
Macro factors like interest rate trajectories and geopolitical developments that fuel volatility will play a big role. Cost discipline and tech investments should also influence operating efficiency. Keeping an eye on monthly volume reports will offer early clues for Q2.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
CBOE in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026
CBOE moved below its 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 29 of 55 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CBOE as a result. In 44 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CBOE turned negative on September 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 55 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 44%.
The 10-day moving average for CBOE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 37%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CBOE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CBOE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 8 of 9 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CBOE advanced for three days, in 200 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
CBOE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CBOE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.066) is normal, around the industry mean (-4.915). P/E Ratio (21.267) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.828). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.414) is also within normal values, averaging (1.843). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.615) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
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a provider of a marketplace for trading equity and index options
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