China ETF (MCHI) Trending Lower Within Descending Channel
Chinese stocks have struggled throughout 2018. China’s economic growth rate has slowed, and the United States and China have been locked in a trade war. The trade dispute rhetoric really started at the end of January and since that time the Shanghai Composite Index has lost over -24%.
Well-known names like Weibo and JD.com have dropped over 50% since January 26. This is the date when President Trump escalated his trade talks.
One China ETF that has been caught in the downward trend is the iShares MSCI China ETF (Nasdaq: MCHI). The daily chart shows how the ETF has cycled lower over the last five months with a clear upper rail and lower rail forming a channel.
The formation of the upper rail coincides with the overbought readings from the stochastic readings and the bearish crossover in the readings. It is also worth noting that the upper rail is in close proximity to the 50-day moving average which could act as two layers of resistance for the fund.
The MCHI just hit the upper rail of the channel on Friday and then turned lower on Monday, which suggests we could be looking at the next cycle lower over the coming days.
MCHI in +2.64% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on September 09, 2025
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where MCHI advanced for three days, in of 260 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on August 28, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MCHI as a result. In of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MCHI just turned positive on September 09, 2025. Looking at past instances where MCHI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 171 cases where MCHI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MCHI moved out of overbought territory on September 12, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCHI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
MCHI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 11, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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