Chipotle (CMG, $645.67) warns of $15 million cost spike and upto 30 bps margin decline, should tariffs on Mexican imports get implemented
Chipotle Mexican Grill feels that tariffs on Mexican imports could raise costs and squeeze margins.
The chain of fast casual restaurants told CNBC that if U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods imported from Mexico gets implemented, the company’s costs could increase by $15 million in 2019, while its margins could get slashed by 20 to 30 basis points.
CFO Jack Hartung mentioned in a statement that Chipotle might consider covering the higher costs through a “modest” price hike on their items, among other potential solutions - should the tariffs become permanent.
Hartung emphasized that the company is committed to its “integrity principles”. He indicated that while premashed or processed avocados would probably be cheaper, the company would continue to use fresh ingredients as it is unwilling to short-change customers on quality and taste.
The tariffs on Mexican imports could gradually increase and could potentially get to as high as 25% this year, if Trump ends up implementing his plan.
CMG sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
CMG saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on September 09, 2025. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 26, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMG as a result. In of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for CMG entered a downward trend on September 16, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CMG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 34 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 13 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
CMG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CMG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (14.925) is normal, around the industry mean (6.268). P/E Ratio (34.779) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.710). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.690) is also within normal values, averaging (1.554). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.051) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.630) is also within normal values, averaging (8.532).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
an operator of fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants
Industry Restaurants
Advertisement