Cognyte Software (CGNT, $4.25) Q2 revenue disappoints
Cognyte Software Ltd posted its second-quarter FY23 non-GAAP loss per share of -$0.04, narrower than consensus expectation of a -$0.17 loss.
Non-GAAP revenue plunged -30.1% year-on-year to $81.3 million, missing the consensus expectation of $92.5 million.
The company’s revenue in Software segment fell -43.7% year-on-year to $27.02 million. Software service revenue was down -15.7% year-on-year to $45.44 million. Professional service and other revenue fell -38% to $8.65 million.
Cognyte’s non-GAAP gross margin contracted -840 bps to 65.1%.
CGNT sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for CGNT moved below the 200-day moving average on September 26, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 25, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CGNT as a result. In of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CGNT turned negative on October 28, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 33 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
CGNT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CGNT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CGNT advanced for three days, in of 234 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CGNT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CGNT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.087) is normal, around the industry mean (30.698). P/E Ratio (263.158) is within average values for comparable stocks, (161.895). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.738). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.083) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.895) is also within normal values, averaging (55.771).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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Industry PackagedSoftware