Consumer Discretionary SPDR bounces off its 50-day moving average
In the strong reversal on May 10, many stocks and ETFs reversed from losses to gains throughout the day. One ETF in particular that caught my attention was the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY).
The XLY dipped down to its 50-day moving average during the trading day, but then rallied back sharply to close higher. Back in August the XLY bounced off of the 50-day moving average on two occasions before moving to a new all-time high in September.
The reversal allowed the daily stochastic readings to make a bullish crossover and create a possible bullish signal. The indicators weren’t in oversold territory, but they made a similar move back in March before halting a brief pullback. After dipping down to the $107.50 level on March 8, the ETF rallied almost 10% over the next month.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal for the XLY on May 9 and that signal showed a confidence level of 77%. The signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month. Previous predictions on the XLY have been successful an impressive 94% of the time.
XLY's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLY turned positive on September 11, 2025. Looking at past instances where XLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 11, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLY as a result. In of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLY advanced for three days, in of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 328 cases where XLY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 15, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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General Information
Category ConsumerDiscretionary
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