Consumer Discretionary SPDR bounces off its 50-day moving average
In the strong reversal on May 10, many stocks and ETFs reversed from losses to gains throughout the day. One ETF in particular that caught my attention was the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY).
The XLY dipped down to its 50-day moving average during the trading day, but then rallied back sharply to close higher. Back in August the XLY bounced off of the 50-day moving average on two occasions before moving to a new all-time high in September.
The reversal allowed the daily stochastic readings to make a bullish crossover and create a possible bullish signal. The indicators weren’t in oversold territory, but they made a similar move back in March before halting a brief pullback. After dipping down to the $107.50 level on March 8, the ETF rallied almost 10% over the next month.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal for the XLY on May 9 and that signal showed a confidence level of 77%. The signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month. Previous predictions on the XLY have been successful an impressive 94% of the time.
XLY's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLY turned positive on November 26, 2025. Looking at past instances where XLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where XLY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 28, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLY as a result. In of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 28, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLY advanced for three days, in of 363 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 327 cases where XLY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for XLY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 14, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
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Category ConsumerDiscretionary
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