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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
May 13, 2019

Consumer Discretionary SPDR bounces off its 50-day moving average

In the strong reversal on May 10, many stocks and ETFs reversed from losses to gains throughout the day. One ETF in particular that caught my attention was the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY).

The XLY dipped down to its 50-day moving average during the trading day, but then rallied back sharply to close higher. Back in August the XLY bounced off of the 50-day moving average on two occasions before moving to a new all-time high in September.

The reversal allowed the daily stochastic readings to make a bullish crossover and create a possible bullish signal. The indicators weren’t in oversold territory, but they made a similar move back in March before halting a brief pullback. After dipping down to the $107.50 level on March 8, the ETF rallied almost 10% over the next month.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal for the XLY on May 9 and that signal showed a confidence level of 77%. The signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month. Previous predictions on the XLY have been successful an impressive 94% of the time.

Related Ticker: XLY

Aroon Indicator for XLY shows an upward move is likely

XLY's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on May 30, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 326 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 326 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 26, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLY as a result. In of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLY just turned positive on June 27, 2025. Looking at past instances where XLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLY advanced for three days, in of 359 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

XLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 27, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD), Lowe's Companies (NYSE:LOW), Nike (NYSE:NKE), Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG), TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG).

Industry description

The investment seeks investment results that, before expenses, correspond to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of companies in the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index. The Advisor employs a replication strategy. The fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes companies that have been identified as Consumer Discretionary companies by the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®). It is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the The Consumer Discret Sel SectSPDR® ETF ETF is 198.57B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 7.84B to 2.37T. AMZN holds the highest valuation in this group at 2.37T. The lowest valued company is HAS at 7.84B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the The Consumer Discret Sel SectSPDR® ETF ETF was 17%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 21%, and the average quarterly price growth was 46%. NKE experienced the highest price growth at 20%, while EBAY experienced the biggest fall at -5%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the The Consumer Discret Sel SectSPDR® ETF ETF was 41%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 161% and the average quarterly volume growth was 191%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 63
P/E Growth Rating: 47
Price Growth Rating: 47
SMR Rating: 32
Profit Risk Rating: 47
Seasonality Score: 5 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

Category ConsumerDiscretionary

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Category
Consumer Cyclical
Address
One Lincoln Street Cph0326Boston
Phone
N/A
Web
www.spdrs.com
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