Costco (COST, $305.93) misses Q3 earnings estimate; but reports y-o-y growth in sales

Costco Wholesale Corp.  posted third quarter earnings that fell behind analysts’ expectations. 

The retail company’s  adjusted earnings for the three months ending May 10 dropped -7.5% year-over-year to $1.89 per share, below  the Street consensus estimate by around a nickel.

 The coronavirus pandemic costs increased to $283 million, which is  47 cents per share. 

However, revenue rose  +7.3% year-over-year to $37.27 million.  The average transaction climbed +9.3% from last year. Membership revenues increased+ 5% to $815 million The company’s U.S. stores remained open during the pandemic since it sells essential goods (among other items).

Tickeron's A.I.-powered scorecard rates Costco as HOLD.

Current price $306.00 crossed the resistance line at $300.88 and is trading between $309.90 support and $300.88 resistance lines. Throughout the month of 04/27/20 - 05/28/20, the price experienced a +0.48% Uptrend. During the week of 05/20/20 - 05/28/20, the stock enjoyed a +2% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Aroon Indicator entered a Downtrend today. In 36 of 112 cases where COST Aroon's Indicator entered a Downtrend, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 32%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on May 27, 2020. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 61 of 96 cases where the ticker's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just turned positive. Considering data from situations where COST's MACD histogram became positive, in 29 of 43 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.

The price moved above its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a change from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. In 33 of 44 similar backtested cases where COST's price crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COST advanced for three days, in 215 of 378 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 81%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.51 to 1.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.23) is normal, around the industry mean (8.85). P/E Ratio (36.31) is within average values for comparable stocks, (47.03). COST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.13) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.45). Dividend Yield (0.83) settles around the average of (1.30) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.89) is also within normal values, averaging (0.66).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. COST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 30 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock better than average.