Go to the list of all blogs
Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jan 05, 2022

Costco Looks to be Setting Up for another Move Higher Ahead of Earnings


Wholesale retailing giant Costco (COST) is getting ready to release its fiscal second quarter results for 2021. The report is due out on March 4, after the closing bell. With the report, the company will be looking to maintain the momentum in its earnings growth that has helped push the stock higher in recent years.

Costco has seen its EPS grow at a rate of 19% per year over the last three years and it saw the EPS jump by 32% in Q1. Revenue jumped by 17% in Q1 and that was a big increase compared to what the company has averaged in recent years. Revenue has grown by an average of 8% per year over the last three years.

For 2021 as a whole, analysts are looking for earnings growth of 15.5% and revenue growth of 10.3%. For the second quarter, the current consensus estimate is for earnings of $2.44 per share and that would be a 16.2% increase over the $2.10 EPS the company reported in Q2 2020. Revenue is expected to come in at $43.75 billion and that is 12% higher than last year’s quarterly revenue.

Costco’s profitability measurements are somewhat mixed. The company’s return on equity is well above average at 28.5% while its profit margin is below average at 3.6%. The low profit margin is understandable due to the company being a discount retailer, but it is also below the industry average. The earnings and revenue growth are well above the industry averages.

The current valuations for Costco show it is slightly overvalued with a trailing P/E of 33.98 and a forward P/E of 31.4. The price-to-sales ratio is at 0.85 and that is below the sector median. The price-to-book is at 9.87 and that is above the sector median. In other words, the various valuation metrics are mixed.

Overall the fundamental picture for Costco is better than average, by industry standards and in general. The earnings growth and the revenue growth are big positives as is the high ROE. Yes there are some negatives, but the positive indicators outweigh the negatives in my opinion.

Recent Pullback Has the Stock Hitting Two Layers of Support

I have to admit that the first thing that jumped out about Costco wasn’t the fundamentals, but rather the chart. A slow pullback over the last three months has brought the stock down to its 50-week moving average. There is also a trend line that connects the lows from the last two plus years. The trend line and the moving average are sitting right on top of one another.

The pullback has brought the weekly stochastic indicators down from overbought territory and they are now in oversold territory for the first time since late 2018. It has also brought the 13-week RSI down to the 40 area for the first time since the same time period—December 2018.

If we look back at time periods where Costco was trading near its 50-week moving average, and when the overbought/oversold indicators were below the 50 level, the stock has tended to rally over the ensuing few quarters. We see a strong rally from December 2018 through January 2020. The market meltdown last February and March caused the stock to drop down to the 50-week moving average again and then the stock rallied over 40% before the pullback started in November.

Changing Consumer Preferences Boosting Sales

When the virus hit the U.S. last year, analysts expected housing sales to get hit hard. But quite the opposite happened. Instead of seeing new home sales and existing home sales decline, we saw significant increases. The pandemic caused a shift in the demand for single family homes as consumers changed their preferences when it came to living arrangements. Instead of staying in the city and living in high rise apartment buildings, or multi-family homes, suburban areas have seen a huge jump in sales. There is also the matter of companies allowing employees to work remotely in greater numbers.

This huge shift in the housing market should help Costco going forward. Let’ face it, most apartments or condos don’t have the storage space of a single family home and many of the bulk products sold at Costco require some storage space. Buying a package of 40 rolls of toilet paper, 10 pounds of chicken breast, six pounds of salmon fillets, and giant boxes of cereal requires storage—not to mention a stand-alone freezer. As consumers move out to the suburbs and in to single family homes, many will discover the great savings the giant warehouse retailers offer.

Costco has already seen sales grow sharply over the past year and the housing shift should help that growth well in to the future. The company has nearly 800 stores operating around the world and the bulk of those stores (over 650) are in the United States and Canada. I have focused on the housing shift in the U.S. as a positive driver for Costco’s sales growth, but we are seeing housing demand grow all around the world and that should help the company’s international sales.

The Upcoming Report

Looking at the upcoming earnings report, Costco has beaten EPS estimates in seven of the last eight quarters, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the company beats once again. Even though the company has beaten estimates most of the time, it hasn’t always led to the stock moving higher. In fact, the last report in December came near the top and then the stock moved lower after the earnings report. Costco also beat estimates in September of last year and the stock rallied sharply in the weeks that followed.

One thing I took note of regarding the reaction to the last two earnings reports was where the overbought/oversold indicators were prior to the report. The stock was overbought in December and then proceeded to move lower. The stock was oversold, at least on the daily chart, in September and it proceeded to move higher after the report. The indicators could have been reflecting where investor sentiment was heading in to the report. In September, expectations may have been lower and then the company impressed investors. Investors may have been too optimistic heading in to the December report and that may have led to the move lower.

Looking at the current daily and weekly indicators, Costco is oversold in both timeframes. This may be a sign that investors are less optimistic this time around and that could make it easier for the company to impress investors. Personally I think the stock is primed for another move higher and can see the stock moving to a new all-time high within the next few quarters.


Related Ticker: COST

COST sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line

COST saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on July 11, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for COST moved out of overbought territory on July 11, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 60 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 60 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 17, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on COST as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COST declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

COST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 05, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COST advanced for three days, in of 381 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 417 cases where COST Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 62%.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 52, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. COST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (17.065) is normal, around the industry mean (10.668). COST's P/E Ratio (51.961) is considerably higher than the industry average of (24.050). COST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (5.221) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.843). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.024) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.469) is also within normal values, averaging (1.263).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST), Target Corp (NYSE:TGT), Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG).

Industry description

Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Discount Stores Industry is 74.63B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.78K to 569.08B. WMT holds the highest valuation in this group at 569.08B. The lowest valued company is TUEMQ at 1.78K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 0%, and the average quarterly price growth was 2%. BIG experienced the highest price growth at 12%, while WMMVY experienced the biggest fall at -9%.


The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was -11%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -9% and the average quarterly volume growth was -31%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 57
P/E Growth Rating: 57
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 49
Profit Risk Rating: 51
Seasonality Score: 30 (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
Daily Signal changed days ago
Gain/Loss if shorted
Show more...
Ad is loading...
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a company which sells goods through membership warehouses

Industry DiscountStores

Specialty Stores
999 Lake Drive
+1 425 313-8100
Ad is loading...
Discover the dynamic world of cryptocurrency trading with Tickeron's AI analysis. Capitalize on bullish and bearish patterns in Origin Protocol (OGN.X), with gains up to 27.80%. Stay ahead with Tickeron's real-time insights and make informed trading decisions. #CryptoTrading #AIAnalysis #OriginProtocol #InvestSmart
Dive into the world of trading excellence with our Best AI Robot of the week! In a market characterized by growth, the key to maximizing profits lies not only in mainstream large-cap stocks but also in exploring opportunities across different market segments.
This article delves into the performance of AI trading robots, specifically those utilizing the "Swing trader: Long-Short Equity Strategy (TA&FA)." These bots showcased their prowess by delivering a notable +4.98% gain while engaging in MRNA trades over the previous week. Beyond mere statistics, we explore the technical indicators and recent earnings report of MRNA to shed light on the underlying dynamics influencing the stock.
Artificial intelligence (AI) trading bots have become powerful tools for investors seeking active trading opportunities. In a recent analysis conducted on the "Day Trader: High Volatility Stocks for Active Trading (TA&FA)" platform, AI trading bots exhibited impressive performance, generating a noteworthy +4.81% gain while actively trading Shopify (SHOP) over the course of the previous week.
In the dynamic world of finance, strategic asset acquisition is a game-changer. Recently, a group of stocks within this domain has been in the spotlight, showcasing notable performances and intriguing patterns. This article delves into the recent movements of these stocks, focusing on key indicators, market capitalization, notable price events, and volume dynamics.
The Tickeron quant team is delighted to introduce our best robot of the week tailored for Trend Traders. Our sophisticated AI Robot, has been designed for manual trading enthusiasts who value independent signal selection.
Tickeron's Quant team is delighted to introduce our latest AI-powered robot designed for trading small-cap stocks, employing a distinctive fundamental stock analysis algorithm. This algorithm, renowned for its blend of in-depth analysis and intuitive signal-following capabilities, is well-suited for both novice and seasoned traders.
The Tickeron quant team proudly presents our top-performing AI robot for swing traders. This robot stands out with its remarkable accuracy, empowering traders to capitalize on diverse market conditions and transaction types. Demonstrating its proficiency, it achieved profitability in short trades during last week's strong uptrend in the US stock markets.
One such example is the "Trend Trader: Popular Stocks (TA&FA)" platform, where AI trading robots demonstrated their prowess by generating a notable gain while actively trading Adobe Inc. (ADBE) over the previous week. In this article, we delve into a technical analysis of ADBE's recent performance, shedding light on key indicators and recent earnings results.
​​​​​​​The railroads sector, encompassing prominent players such as Canadian Pacific Railway (CP), CSX Corporation (CSX), Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC), Canadian National Railway Company (CNI), and Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), has undergone a noteworthy surge in performance over the past week. However, a closer examination reveals a complex landscape marked by negative outlook signals and fluctuating market dynamics.
The Tickeron quant team is excited to introduce our premier AI robot, specifically optimized for Swing Traders. This tool represents the pinnacle of our technological advancements in trading algorithms. Excelling in the market, it has achieved an impressive feat, earning twice as much as the S&P 500 in just the past week.
In the whirlwind of the current mergers and acquisitions frenzy, investors are reaping substantial rewards as stocks within the merger industry theme surged by an impressive 20.9% on average over the past month.
The Tickeron quant team is delighted to introduce our top-performing AI robot tailored for beginners. Our AI Robot specializes in navigating the high-tech stocks within the NASDAQ 100 index, renowned for their liquidity and moderate volatility—making them an ideal choice for novice traders.
In the dynamic landscape of the US stock markets, where unpredictability has become the norm, finding a trading strategy that not only thrives in periods of growth but also shields against sharp corrections is paramount.
The Tickeron quant team proudly introduces our premier AI Robot, tailor-made for trend traders who prefer manual trading and selecting their own signals. This AI Robot stands out with its impressive track record of consistent trading predictions, empowering traders to align their decisions with personal preferences.
Tickeron is excited to highlight the exceptional performance of our top AI robot this week, given the recent downturn in major US stock indices. While the SP500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrial all experienced declines, our AI robot, thanks to its well-calibrated diversification across various industries, demonstrated remarkable resilience.
As the trading week came to a close on Friday, there were notable movements across various asset classes:
Tickeron's quant team diligently monitors developed trading algorithms daily to determine the most effective ones. Today, we are delighted to present three of the best robots tailored for swing traders, showcasing consistently positive results over several months, irrespective of market conditions. This week, they underscored their efficacy by yielding impressive gains across various stocks, even as major US stock indexes dipped.
Tickeron is excited to highlight the exceptional performance of our top AI robot this week. The US stock market has experienced a consistent upward trend for the past five months, heightening the anticipation of a forthcoming correction with each passing day.
Introducing our top-performing best AI Robot of the week, designed by Tickeron's expert quant team for trading small-cap stocks. This algorithm blends classical and proprietary technical indicators, honed through advanced machine learning, to empower users with effective portfolio diversification and maximum profitability in the dynamic market.