Credicorp (BAP): What to Expect from Q1 2026 Earnings After a Strong 2025
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 EPS of $6.92 and revenue of $1.55 billion, reflecting continued momentum from 2025's record performance.
- Credicorp follows a calendar fiscal year, with Q1 spanning January to March 2026.
- 2025 full-year ROE (return on equity) reached 19%, supported by loan growth and digital expansion.
- Guidance for 2026 includes around 8.5% loan portfolio growth and ROE near 19.5%.
- Investors watch net interest margins (NIM, spread between interest earned and paid) and asset quality amid Peru's economic recovery.
- Earnings release scheduled after market close on May 14, 2026, with conference call on May 15.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As someone following financials in emerging markets closely, I see Credicorp (BAP)'s Q1 2026 report as a key milestone. This Peru-based holding company runs Banco de Crédito del Perú (BCP), Mibanco, and digital platforms like Yape. Coming off a standout 2025, where net income rose 26% to S/7,083 million and ROE reached 19%, this quarter sets the tone for the year. With a footprint spanning Chile, Colombia, Bolivia, and more, the diversification helps mitigate some regional risks. From what I see, investors are tuning in for insights on loan expansion as Peru's economy stabilizes, growth in digital revenues, and how the company is handling political uncertainties. Solid numbers here could validate the stock's impressive 65% gain over the past year, while any shortfalls might test its premium valuation.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street's consensus points to Q1 2026 EPS of $6.92, an increase from $6.02 in the year-ago quarter, paired with revenue of $1.55 billion that builds on established trends. These estimates have remained consistent, with only slight adjustments from sources like MarketBeat and Zacks. I'm particularly focused on metrics like NIM, projected around 7%, and loan growth aligning with the 8.5% guidance for 2026. Recall that in Q4 2025, EPS came in at $5.93 against expectations of $6.37, leading to a 2.36% dip in the stock—though it rebounded thanks to the full-year results. History shows that earnings beats for BAP often trigger 5-10% upside moves, highlighting the event's potential volatility.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Approaching these earnings, the mood around BAP feels cautiously optimistic to me. Shares have hovered between $318 and $322 in the lead-up, reflecting a 12% year-to-date advance and 66% over the past year, driven by 2025's profitability records. Analysts continue to lean Buy, with price targets clustering near $360. That said, challenges like Peru's political landscape and possible NIM pressure from higher funding costs remain on the radar. A results beat could ignite further gains, consistent with prior patterns, and reaffirmed guidance on ROE and loans would go a long way in sustaining investor confidence.
Discovering Opportunities with Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for uncovering stocks and ETFs through filters on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and predictive signals. It lets me scan thousands of names efficiently using criteria like industry, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and performance data—spotting trade ideas, breakouts, and opportunities faster than manual methods. One thing that stands out is how it helped me contextualize BAP against peers in Latin American financials. If you're building watchlists ahead of earnings like these, it's a practical addition to your toolkit.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Once Q1 numbers are out, my attention will shift to how Credicorp is tracking against its 2026 guidance. The company aims for 8.5% growth in the total loan portfolio, with double-digit increases at BCP and Mibanco, powered by digital channels such as Yape that are now making a real revenue impact.
ROE guidance sits around 19.5%, backed by steady NIM in the 6.9%-7.4% range and a cost-to-income ratio improving to 44%-46%. Asset quality is another area worth watching, with non-performing loans (NPLs) at historic lows, alongside fee income from innovation units targeting 10% of total revenues.
Looking ahead, catalysts include Q2 results in August, Peruvian regulatory developments, and progress at Tenpo's neobank in Chile. Macro factors like policy rates at 4.25% and regional GDP rebound will shape margins and loan demand. Leadership changes announced on May 13, effective later, suggest steady execution on the growth plan. I'm watching these elements closely as they unfold.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
BAP in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BAP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 33 of 49 cases where BAP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
BAP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BAP advanced for three days, in 234 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 254 of 354 cases where BAP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BAP as a result. In 50 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BAP turned negative on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BAP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
BAP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BAP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BAP's P/B Ratio (2.814) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.321). P/E Ratio (14.571) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.015). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.040) is also within normal values, averaging (1.186). Dividend Yield (0.037) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.088) is also within normal values, averaging (3.747).
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