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May 26, 2020

Dollar General vs. Dollar Tree: Which One Looks Better Ahead of Earnings?

Deep discount retail chains Dollar General (NYSE: DG) and Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR) are both set to release fiscal first quarter earnings results before the market opens on Thursday, May 28. Let's break down the two companies with how the fundamental and technical indicators look ahead of those earnings reports.

Looking at the fundamental ratings from Tickeron, we see that the companies have similar ratings in three categories, but Dollar General scores much better when it comes to the Profit vs. Risk Rating and it also scores better in the P/E Growth Rating category.

Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points refers to the least successful stocks for that industry.

Dollar Tree's Valuation (68) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as Dollar General (77). This means that the two stocks are priced similarly in terms of the valuation based on price-t0-earnings, price to book, price to sales, and projected growth (PEG ratio).

Dollar General's SMR Rating (48) is in the same range as Dollar Tree's (53). This means the companies have seen similar sales growth, similar return on equity readings and profit margins.

Dollar General's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as Dollar Tree (54). This means that stock grew similarly at similar rates over the last 12 months.

Dollar General's P/E Growth Rating (20) is significantly better than Dollar Tree's (49). This means that Dollar General’s P/E growth has been better than Dollar Tree's over the last 12 months.

Dollar General's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) is significantly better than the same rating for Dollar Tree (91). This is a very wide discrepancy and suggests that Dollar General is a better investment right now.

The overall fundamental ratings tend to favor Dollar General over Dollar Tree. Looking at the AI predictions for each stock we see that both generated signals four days ago, but the signal for Dollar Tree was bearish and the signal for Dollar General was bullish.

The predictions go along with what the stocks have done over the past year. From May 2, 2019 through May 22, 2020, Dollar General is up 47.91% while Dollar Tree is down 17.95%. If we look at the weekly charts for the two stocks we see that Dollar General has doubled in price over the last two years, but the stock is also overbought based on its weekly stochastic indicators.

Dollar Tree is actually lower than where it was two years ago, but it was higher in the middle. The stock traded between $80 and $90 for most of Q4 2018 and then rose to almost $120 in October 2019 before falling for the last eight months.

What's really concerning about Dollar Tree's chart are the big drawdowns in May '18, August '18, and November '19 were all the result of earnings announcements. This signifies that the stock has a propensity for gapping lower after earnings reports.

Dollar Tree did just move back above its 13-week moving average and that could be a good sign for the stock. If we look at where the technical analysis indicators are for both stocks, we see that there are more positive results for Dollar Tree than Dollar General.

The table above shows that the AROON Indicator, MACD, Momentum Indicator, and Moving Averages have all signaled bullishly for Dollar Tree and there haven't been any bearish signals from the technical indicators. For Dollar General, there is only one bullish signal (Momentum), but three bearish signals from the Stochastic readings, MACD, and the Bollinger Bands.

Taking all of this in to account, a slight

Based on the AI signals and the fundamental indicators, I would have to give the edge to Dollar General. There is also the matter of Dollar Tree falling sharply after three different earnings reports over the last few years.

Related Ticker: DG

DG in -6.27% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on April 15, 2024

Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where DG declined for three days, in of 288 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for DG moved out of overbought territory on March 13, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 12, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DG as a result. In of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DG turned negative on April 08, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

DG moved below its 50-day moving average on April 12, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

The 50-day moving average for DG moved above the 200-day moving average on March 13, 2024. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DG advanced for three days, in of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

DG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 253 cases where DG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.719) is normal, around the industry mean (10.054). P/E Ratio (19.204) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.304). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.471) is also within normal values, averaging (2.880). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.024) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.824) is also within normal values, averaging (1.184).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 51, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST), Target Corp (NYSE:TGT), Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG).

Industry description

Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Discount Stores Industry is 67.48B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.78K to 482.19B. WMT holds the highest valuation in this group at 482.19B. The lowest valued company is TUEMQ at 1.78K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was -4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 13%. DLMAF experienced the highest price growth at 1%, while TBBB experienced the biggest fall at -10%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was 19%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -62% and the average quarterly volume growth was -2%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 47
P/E Growth Rating: 58
Price Growth Rating: 80
SMR Rating: 50
Profit Risk Rating: 50
Seasonality Score: -17 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

an operator of retail stores

Industry DiscountStores

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Discount Stores
Address
100 Mission Ridge
Phone
+1 615 855-4000
Employees
185800
Web
https://www.dollargeneral.com
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