Economists raise growth forecast on China, following release of better-than-expected economic data
Some investment banks have raised their outlook on China’s economic growth.
Last week, the Chinese government announced that gross domestic product grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019. The figure surpassed the 6.3% expected by analysts in a Reuters’ poll. That seems to have led economists at some prominent investment banks to boost their growth expectations for China, as indicated by a CNBC report.
According to the report, economists at Barclays increased their China GDP growth forecast for the full-year to 6.5% from the previous estimate of 6.2 %, citing China’s first-quarter growth beat. The economists indicated better-than-expected effect of China’s government stimulus measures coupled with the apparent firming of the nation’s housing markets and an improving outlook on exports as factors behind their upward revision to growth prediction.
The report also mentions that Citi raised its annual GDP forecast to 6.6% from 6.2% on Wednesday, owing to what they perceived as higher optimism for a U.S.-China trade deal and improving domestic demand in China.
ING upped its estimate to 6.5% from its previous 6.3%, attributing the forecast revision to China’s infrastructure projects helped by stimulus, and 5G telecoms production in the first quarter.
Some other organizations, however, were a bit more cautious in their outlook albeit amidst increased optimism on first quarter growth.
J.P. Morgan economists expect “solid growth momentum” in the second and third quarters, but believe the impact would eventually taper off by the end of the year. They maintained their overall forecast for this year at 6.4%.
Standard Chartered left its full-year prediction unchanged at 6.4%, while maintaining caution against what they think are risks of over-optimism about China’s growth outlook.
MCHI's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for MCHI moved out of oversold territory on April 09, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 22, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MCHI as a result. In of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MCHI just turned positive on April 22, 2025. Looking at past instances where MCHI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCHI advanced for three days, in of 265 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MCHI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
MCHI moved below its 50-day moving average on May 07, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MCHI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 07, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCHI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for MCHI entered a downward trend on April 17, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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